GTFC Impact Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · GTFC Impact (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:30 PM
Rossford Soccer Center Dome, Indoor Turf 9v9 (2) ↗ · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.6 for, 2.9 against · 1.75 expected points)
| Season so far | GTFC Impact Pre | Ohio Premier Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-1 | 3-2-1 |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 1.83 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 4.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W D W W | D W L W W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs Grasshoppers FC White | 7–0 vs Pacesetter SC Pre- Red |
| Worst loss | 0–1 vs Pacesetter SC Pre- Red | 5–6 vs GTFC Impact Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.06 | +0.82 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.47 | -0.55 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 6–5 at Ohio Premier Pre (W)
Common opponents: Grasshoppers FC White — we 5–3, 6–0; they 2–1, 3–3. Pacesetter SC Pre- Red — we 5–2, 0–1; they 7–0, 6–3. Ohio Premier Pre-Regional — we 2–2; they 2–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Ohio Premier Pre score 4.2/game — well above the league's 3.0.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Pacesetter SC Pre- Red.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 16% / loss 31%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Premier Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GTFC Impact Pre – Ohio Premier Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.29 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.29 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 1.86 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 69%
- 2nd 22%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
38 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link GTFC Impact Pre to Ohio Premier Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.71 · 2nd hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:30 PM |
Ohio Premier Pre 2nd · 3-2-1 · GD +10 |
Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Ohio Premier Pre-Regional 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +5 |
Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
3–2 | 1.81 | 2.07 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | GTFC Impact Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 13 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDWL | -0.47 | +0.71 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Ohio Premier Pre | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 11 | 1.83 | WWLWD | -0.55 | +0.83 | 100% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact Pre · Mon Oct 26 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Ohio Premier Pre-Regional | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 8 | 1.60 | DWLDW | -0.24 | +0.07 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Grasshoppers FC White · Sun Oct 25 at GTFC Impact Pre · Mon Oct 26 vs Ohio Premier Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pacesetter SC Pre- Red | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 10 | 1.25 | LLDWW | +0.18 | — | 100% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 5 | Grasshoppers FC White | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 30 | -18 | 2 | 0.29 | LLLDL | +0.46 | +0.61 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.96 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.