Mercury Pre- 1

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 11 teams · Mercury (all teams)

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11th

0-1-5 record · 6 played

0.17 points per game

-14 goal diff · 12–26

LLLDLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.3

-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Mercury Pre- 1
11th · 0.17 PPG

Louisville City Academy Pre
1st · 2.50 PPG

Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility, Field 2A ↗ far trip

2% 95%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–7 (expected goals 1.7 for, 7.2 against · 0.09 expected points)

Season so far	Mercury Pre- 1	Louisville City Academy Pre
Position	11th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	0-1-5	5-0-1
Points per game	0.17	2.50
Goals for / game	2.0	6.3
Goals against / game	4.3	2.0
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L D L L L	W W L W W
Biggest win	—	10–0 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16
Worst loss	1–6 at Union FC Indy Teal I	1–2 at Lakota FC Pre- Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.61	+2.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.16	-0.13

Common opponents: Cincinnati Elite FC Pre — we 3–5; they 4–2. FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 — we 1–2; they 10–0. Columbus Force Pre — we 2–2; they 9–2. Lexington Sporting Academy Pre — we 4–8; they 6–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Louisville City Academy Pre score 6.3/game — well above the league's 3.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 2%; a draw (3%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Total Futbol Academy Elite sit 10th on 0.43 PPG; we are on 0.17.
A point moves us above Total Futbol Academy Elite on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Louisville City Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- 1 – Louisville City Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.14 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	11th— holds
Win 0.57 PPG	9th▲ up 2	9th▲ up 2	9th▲ up 2
Draw 0.29 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	11th— holds
Loss 0.14 PPG	11th— holds	11th— holds	11th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–7 loss we stay 11th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

10.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th 1%
9th 24%
10th 24%
11th 52%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.30 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Louisville City Academy Pre	2.50 (+2.33)	1st (2.52)	24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lakota FC Pre- Black	2.43 (+2.26)	2nd (2.47)	24 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Union FC Indy Teal I	2.25 (+2.08)	3rd (2.10)	22 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre	2.00 (+1.83)	4th (1.90)	19 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White	1.75 (+1.58)	5th (1.53)	17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
6	Elite FC Pre- Blue	1.22 (+1.05)	6th (1.30)	12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	Columbus Force Pre	1.22 (+1.05)	7th (1.18)	12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
8	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre	1.00 (+0.83)	8th (1.13)	9 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection
9	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16	0.50 (+0.33)	10th (0.50)	A point next game
10	Total Futbol Academy Elite	0.43 (+0.26)	9th (0.55)	A point next game

How the results connect

28 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- 1 to Louisville City Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

28 favour them

-6.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.71 · 4th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Mon Jan 1 TBD no score posted	Elite FC Pre- Blue 6th · 3-2-4 · GD +0	Home	●●●●● Very tough	24%	3–4	0.85	0.26	Upside
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Louisville City Academy Pre 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +26	Away far trip Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●●● Very tough	2%	1–7	0.09	0.24	Upside
Thu Oct 29 05:20 PM	Total Futbol Academy Elite 10th · 1-0-6 · GD -17	Away far trip TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC)	●●●●○ Tough	41%	2–2	1.43	0.37	Upside
Sat Oct 31 10:30 AM	Lakota FC Pre- Black 2nd · 5-2-0 · GD +17	Away Line Hill	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–4	0.18	0.35	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Louisville City Academy Pre

+26

2.50

WWLWW

-0.13

-0.43

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	10–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	9–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	8–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal I · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	7–1	95%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	3–2	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	6–1	95%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	4–1	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Pre- Black

+17

2.43

WDWWW

+0.21

-1.04

100%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	7–1
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	3–2	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	4–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal I

+18

2.25

DWDDW

-0.44

+1.30

100%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	6–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	7–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	5–1
W	Fri Aug 21	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	3–1	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–3	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

+10

2.00

DWWLW

-0.25

+0.30

92%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	8–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–6
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	8–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White · Sat Nov 7 at Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	5–2	77%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	2–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White

1.75

WDWLL

-0.37

+1.86

5.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	4–7
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	3–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	4–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–4	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC Pre- Blue

1.22

LWDWL

+0.11

-1.61

6.0

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	4–6
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	4–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	7–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	4–8
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	4–4
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	6–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–5

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- 1 See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	4–3	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre

-3

1.22

DLDWW

-0.17

+1.44

7.2

W	Thu Oct 22	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	6–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC Indy Teal I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre

-11

1.00

LLWDL

+0.63

-1.05

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–8
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	5–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	3–7
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	4–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 · Sat Nov 14 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–5	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16

-29

0.50

LLWLL

+0.18

+0.39

10.0

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	3–8
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	0–4
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	3–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	0–6
L	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-17

0.43

LLWLL

+0.16

+0.08

9.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–7

Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	2–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

-14

0.17

LLLDL

-0.16

+0.71

10.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	4–8
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Elite FC Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy Pre · Thu Oct 29 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	3–4	24%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–7	2%
·	Thu Oct 29	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.