Lakota FC Pre- Black

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 11 teams · Lakota Futbol Club (all teams)

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2nd

5-2-0 record · 7 played

2.43 points per game

+17 goal diff · 25–8

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

+0.21 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:30 AM

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Lakota FC Pre- Black
2nd · 2.43 PPG

Mercury Pre- 1
11th · 0.17 PPG

Line Hill, Field 4 ↗

90%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.8 for, 1.2 against · 2.76 expected points)

Season so far	Lakota FC Pre- Black	Mercury Pre- 1
Position	2nd	11th
Record (W-D-L)	5-2-0	0-1-5
Points per game	2.43	0.17
Goals for / game	3.6	2.0
Goals against / game	1.1	4.3
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	L D L L L
Biggest win	8–1 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre	—
Worst loss	—	1–6 at Union FC Indy Teal I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.72	-1.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.21	-0.16

Common opponents: Union FC Indy Teal I — we 1–1; they 1–6. Columbus Force Pre — we 2–0; they 2–2. Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White — we 1–0; they 1–3. Cincinnati Elite FC Pre — we 8–1; they 3–5.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
What a win does
Louisville City Academy Pre sit 1st on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.43.
A win moves us above Louisville City Academy Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury Pre- 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lakota FC Pre- Black – Mercury Pre- 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.50 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.25 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.13 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

35% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 35%
2nd 57%
3rd 7%
4th 2%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Louisville City Academy Pre	2.50 (+0.07)	1st (2.52)	Win next game

How the results connect

34 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Lakota FC Pre- Black to Mercury Pre- 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

33 favour us

1 favour them

+5.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

16 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.04 · 9th hardest of 11

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 31 10:30 AM	Mercury Pre- 1 11th · 0-1-5 · GD -14	Home Line Hill	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.76	2.47	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre 4th · 4-2-1 · GD +10	Home Wyoming Recreation Center	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	3–2	2.14	2.43	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 02:45 PM	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 9th · 1-1-6 · GD -29	Away far trip FC Pride Performance Center (Turf) · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	4–1	2.77	2.47	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Louisville City Academy Pre

+26

2.50

WWLWW

-0.13

-0.43

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	10–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	4–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	9–2
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	8–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal I · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	7–1	95%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	3–2	57%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	6–1	95%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	4–1	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Pre- Black

+17

2.43

WDWWW

+0.21

-1.04

100%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	8–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	2–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	7–1
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	4–1	90%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	3–2	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	4–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal I

+18

2.25

DWDDW

-0.44

+1.30

100%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	6–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	3–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	7–3
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	5–1
W	Fri Aug 21	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Columbus Force Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	3–1	63%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–3	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

+10

2.00

DWWLW

-0.25

+0.30

92%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	8–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–6
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	8–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White · Sat Nov 7 at Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	5–2	77%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	2–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White

1.75

WDWLL

-0.37

+1.86

5.3

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	4–7
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	3–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	4–1
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Louisville City Academy Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–3	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–4	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Elite FC Pre- Blue

1.22

LWDWL

+0.11

-1.61

6.0

L	Thu Oct 22	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	4–6
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	4–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	7–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	4–8
D	Sat Aug 29	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	4–4
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	6–0
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–5

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- 1 See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	4–3	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Columbus Force Pre

-3

1.22

DLDWW

-0.17

+1.44

7.2

W	Thu Oct 22	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	6–4
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	4–0
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Union FC Indy Teal I See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–3	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre

-11

1.00

LLWDL

+0.63

-1.05

7.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–8
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	5–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	3–7
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	4–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 · Sat Nov 14 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	2–5	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–2	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	3–2	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16

-29

0.50

LLWLL

+0.18

+0.39

10.0

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	3–8
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	0–4
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	3–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	0–6
L	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Pre- Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-17

0.43

LLWLL

+0.16

+0.08

9.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–7

Next: Thu Oct 29 vs Mercury Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 at Louisville City Academy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Thu Oct 29	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (11th)	2–2	40%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	2–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

-14

0.17

LLLDL

-0.16

+0.71

10.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (4th)	4–8
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Columbus Force Pre (7th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Union FC Indy Teal I (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- B15/16 (9th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (8th)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Galaxies BSA Celtic Pre- White (5th)	1–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Elite FC Pre- Blue · Sat Oct 24 at Louisville City Academy Pre · Thu Oct 29 at Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Elite FC Pre- Blue (6th)	3–4	24%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Louisville City Academy Pre (1st)	1–7	2%
·	Thu Oct 29	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (10th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Lakota FC Pre- Black (2nd)	1–4	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.