Pacesetter SC Pre- Red

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 6 teams · Pacesetter Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th

3-0-4 record · 7 played

1.29 points per game

+1 goal diff · 21–20

WWLLWlast 5

81% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2

+0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:15 PM

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Pacesetter SC Pre- Red
4th · 1.29 PPG

Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre
6th · 0.38 PPG

Memorial Park Fields, Field 1 ↗ far trip

80% 11% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.8 for, 1.4 against · 2.52 expected points)

Season so far	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre
Position	4th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-4	1-0-7
Points per game	1.29	0.38
Goals for / game	3.0	0.8
Goals against / game	2.9	4.8
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	4
Form (recent first)	W L L W W	L L L W L
Biggest win	8–3 at North FC Pre- East	2–1 at Pacesetter SC Pre- Red
Worst loss	0–6 at Cleveland Force Pre- White	0–10 at Cleveland Force Pre- White
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.26	-2.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.44	+0.36

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 1–2 vs Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (L)

Common opponents: TCFC North Pre — we 1–2, 6–2; they 2–6, 0–6. North FC Pre- East — we 8–3, 3–2; they 0–4, 1–2. Cleveland Force Pre- White — we 0–6, 2–3; they 0–10.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 3.1); blanked in 4 of 8.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre concede 4.8/game; worst result 0–10 at Cleveland Force Pre- White.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 at Cleveland Force Pre- White.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 02:15 PM at Memorial Park Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
North FC Pre- East sit 3rd on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.29.
A win moves us above North FC Pre- East on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pacesetter SC Pre- Red – Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.50 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 1
Win 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	3rd▲ up 1	4th— holds
Draw 1.25 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.13 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

81% top 4

19% below the top 4

3.2 average finish

1st
2nd 45%
3rd 10%
4th 25%
5th 19%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Cleveland Force Pre- White	3.00 (+1.71)	1st (2.88)	21 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	TCFC North Pre	1.71 (+0.42)	4th (1.40)	9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection
3	North FC Pre- East	1.50 (+0.21)	2nd (1.50)	Win next game

How the results connect

59 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Pacesetter SC Pre- Red to Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

49 favour us

2 even

8 favour them

+5.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

17 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.86 · 4th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:15 PM	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre 6th · 1-0-7 · GD -32	Away far trip Memorial Park Fields	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.52	1.44	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red 5th · 3-0-4 · GD +1	Away far trip Gameday Sports	●●●●○ Tough	38%	2–2	1.34	1.43	Upside
Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red 5th · 3-0-4 · GD +1	Home Pacesetter Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–2	1.67	1.45	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Cleveland Force Pre- White

+28

3.00

WWWWW

-0.24

-1.06

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	8–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	4–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	6–0
W	Tue Oct 6	vs	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 2	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	10–0
W	Tue Sep 8	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	5–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 at TCFC North Pre · Sat Nov 14 at TCFC North Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	5–1	96%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	5–2	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	5–2	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TCFC North Pre

1.71

WLLWW

-0.68

+1.76

59%

4.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	3–2
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	6–0
L	Fri Oct 2	at	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	2–9
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	2–6
W	Fri Sep 11	at	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	6–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	2–1
L	Fri Aug 28	vs	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	5–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Upper 90 FC Pre- Red · Sat Nov 14 vs Cleveland Force Pre- White · Sat Nov 14 vs Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	2–3	32%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	2–5	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	2–5	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North FC Pre- East

1.50

WLLLL

+0.07

—

100%

3.0

Pacesetter SC Pre- Red

1.29

WWLLW

+0.44

-0.86

81%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 17	at	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	8–3
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	6–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Upper 90 FC Pre- Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Upper 90 FC Pre- Red See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	2–2	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Upper 90 FC Pre- Red

1.29

LWLLL

+0.04

+0.10

61%

3.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	2–3
L	Tue Oct 6	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	6–1
L	Tue Sep 8	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	3–5
W	Fri Sep 4	vs	Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre (6th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pacesetter SC Pre- Red · Sun Oct 25 vs TCFC North Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Pacesetter SC Pre- Red See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	3–2	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cuyahoga Valley SA Pre

-32

0.38

LWLLL

+0.36

+1.44

6.0

L	Fri Oct 16	at	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 10	at	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	1–2
L	Fri Oct 2	at	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	0–10
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	2–1
L	Thu Sep 17	vs	North FC Pre- East (3rd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	1–6
L	Fri Sep 11	vs	TCFC North Pre (2nd)	2–6
L	Fri Sep 4	at	Upper 90 FC Pre- Red (5th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Pacesetter SC Pre- Red · Sun Oct 25 vs Cleveland Force Pre- White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Pacesetter SC Pre- Red (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- White (1st)	1–5	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.14 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.