Mercury Pre- West
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 5 teams · Mercury (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, 02:00 PM
Home of The Brave - HOB, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.8 for, 3.3 against · 1.21 expected points)
| Season so far | Mercury Pre- West | Cincinnati Elite FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-2 | 2-1-2 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 1.40 |
| Goals for / game | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W L | D L L W W |
| Biggest win | 6–3 vs Elite FC Pre | 8–0 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green |
| Worst loss | 3–5 vs Elite FC Pre | 1–7 at Elite FC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.70 | +0.81 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.63 | +0.57 |
Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 3–2 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (W)
Common opponents: Elite FC Pre — we 3–5, 6–3; they 1–7, 4–4. Lexington Sporting Pre- Green — we 1–2, 3–1; they 8–0. FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 — we 5–2, 5–2; they 5–0.
Game plan
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Home of The Brave - HOB.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati Elite FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre- West – Cincinnati Elite FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.88 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
2nd— holds | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 72%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th
- 5th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elite FC Pre | 2.38 (+0.24) | 1st (2.38) | 5 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
41 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Mercury Pre- West to Cincinnati Elite FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.81 · 1st hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM |
Cincinnati Elite FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Home of The Brave - HOB |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–3 | 1.21 | 2.03 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Elite FC Pre | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 16 | +38 | 19 | 2.38 | WWWWD | -0.72 | — | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 2 | Mercury Pre- West | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWW | -0.63 | +0.81 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Cincinnati Elite FC Pre | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 7 | 1.40 | WWLLD | +0.57 | -1.33 | 100% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Mercury Pre- West See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lexington Sporting Pre- Green | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 33 | -18 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWLW | +0.20 | +0.81 | 100% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 44 | -35 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.56 | +0.81 | 0% | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.