Cincinnati Elite FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 5 teams · Cincinnati Elite FC (all teams)

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3rd

2-1-2 record · 5 played

1.40 points per game

+6 goal diff · 20–14

WWLLDlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8

+0.57 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Cincinnati Elite FC Pre
3rd · 1.40 PPG

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
4th · 1.29 PPG

Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex, Field 4B ↗ far trip

70% 12% 18%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.3 for, 2.4 against · 2.22 expected points)

Season so far	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-2	3-0-4
Points per game	1.40	1.29
Goals for / game	4.0	2.1
Goals against / game	2.8	4.7
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	D L L W W	W L W L L
Biggest win	8–0 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green	6–1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2
Worst loss	1–7 at Elite FC Pre	0–10 at Elite FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.81	-1.52
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.57	+0.20

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 8–0 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (W)

Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 — we 5–0; they 6–2, 6–1. Mercury Pre- West — we 2–3; they 2–1, 1–3. Elite FC Pre — we 1–7, 4–4; they 0–8, 0–10.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 70% / draw 12% / loss 18%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lexington Sporting Pre- Green game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Cincinnati Elite FC Pre – Lexington Sporting Pre- Green) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.67 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.67 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.33 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.17 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–2 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.8 average finish

1st
2nd 30%
3rd 59%
4th 11%
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Elite FC Pre	2.38 (+0.98)	1st (2.38)	13 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Mercury Pre- West	2.14 (+0.74)	2nd (2.03)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

41 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Cincinnati Elite FC Pre to Lexington Sporting Pre- Green through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

25 favour us

1 even

15 favour them

+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.33 · 4th hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green 4th · 3-0-4 · GD -18	Away far trip Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	4–2	2.22	1.54	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 01:15 PM	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 5th · 0-0-7 · GD -35	Away far trip Lawrence Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	5–1	2.67	1.70	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	Mercury Pre- West 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +9	Home Home of The Brave - HOB	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	3–2	1.63	1.69	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Elite FC Pre

+38

2.38

WWWWD

-0.72

—

100%

1.0

Mercury Pre- West

2.14

LWWWW

-0.63

+0.81

100%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Elite FC Pre (1st)	6–3
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Elite FC Pre (1st)	3–5

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–3	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre

1.40

WWLLD

+0.57

-1.33

100%

2.8

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	4–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Mercury Pre- West See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	4–2	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	3–2	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

-18

1.29

LLWLW

+0.20

+0.81

100%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	6–1
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	6–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	0–8
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–4	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

-35

0.00

LLLLL

+0.56

+0.81

5.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	2–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	1–9
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	1–8

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	1–5	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.