Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU10 (2016-2017) 7v7 · 5 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)

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4th

3-0-4 record · 7 played

1.29 points per game

-18 goal diff · 15–33

LLWLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9

+0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
4th · 1.29 PPG

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre
3rd · 1.40 PPG

Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex, Field 4B ↗

18% 12% 70%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.4 for, 4.3 against · 0.66 expected points)

Season so far	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre
Position	4th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-4	2-1-2
Points per game	1.29	1.40
Goals for / game	2.1	4.0
Goals against / game	4.7	2.8
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	3	0
Form (recent first)	W L W L L	D L L W W
Biggest win	6–1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2	8–0 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
Worst loss	0–10 at Elite FC Pre	1–7 at Elite FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.52	+0.81
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.20	+0.57

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 0–8 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (L)

Common opponents: Mercury Pre- West — we 2–1, 1–3; they 2–3. Elite FC Pre — we 0–8, 0–10; they 1–7, 4–4. FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 — we 6–2, 6–1; they 5–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–8 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre, 0–8 at Elite FC Pre, 0–10 at Elite FC Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 18%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
Cincinnati Elite FC Pre sit 3rd on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.29.
A point moves us above Cincinnati Elite FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati Elite FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Pre- Green – Cincinnati Elite FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.13 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.50 PPG	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1
Draw 1.25 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 1.13 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

3.9 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 11%
4th 89%
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Elite FC Pre	2.38 (+1.09)	1st (2.38)	11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Mercury Pre- West	2.14 (+0.85)	2nd (2.03)	9 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre	1.40 (+0.11)	3rd (1.69)	A point next game

How the results connect

41 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Lexington Sporting Pre- Green to Cincinnati Elite FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us

1 even

25 favour them

-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.81 · 2nd hardest of 4

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD +6	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●●●● Very tough	18%	2–4	0.66	1.21	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Elite FC Pre

+38

2.38

WWWWD

-0.72

—

100%

1.0

Mercury Pre- West

2.14

LWWWW

-0.63

+0.81

100%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	1–2
W	Sun Aug 16	vs	Elite FC Pre (1st)	6–3
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Elite FC Pre (1st)	3–5

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–3	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre

1.40

WWLLD

+0.57

-1.33

100%

2.8

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	4–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	8–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Mercury Pre- West See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	4–2	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	5–1	87%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	3–2	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

-18

1.29

LLWLW

+0.20

+0.81

100%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	6–1
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (5th)	6–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	0–8
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	0–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–4	18%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

-35

0.00

LLLLL

+0.56

+0.81

5.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (4th)	2–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Mercury Pre- West (2nd)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	1–9
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Elite FC Pre (1st)	1–8

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	1–5	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.