SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU12 · 9 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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1st

6-1-0 record · 7 played

2.71 points per game

+16 goal diff · 25–9

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM

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SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ
1st · 2.71 PPG

Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao
7th · 0.60 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3A ↗

80% 11% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.3 against · 2.51 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ	Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao
Position	1st	7th
Record (W-D-L)	6-1-0	1-0-4
Points per game	2.71	0.60
Goals for / game	3.6	1.4
Goals against / game	1.3	3.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W L L L L
Biggest win	5–2 vs FC Dallas South Academy	3–2 at FC Dallas South Academy
Worst loss	—	0–5 vs DKSC Pre- Guerrero
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.57	-1.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.25	-0.07

Common opponents: OK Energy FC Pre I — we 0–0; they 0–2. FC Dallas South Academy — we 5–2; they 3–2. DKSC Pre- Guerrero — we 4–1; they 0–5. Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec — we 5–2; they 1–2. Nido Dallas Pre - Campos — we 4–1; they 3–5.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at OK Energy FC Pre I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ – Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.75 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.38 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

100% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 100%
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

26 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ to Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+3.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.02 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -9	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	80%	3–1	2.51	2.69	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ

+16

2.71

WWWWW

-0.25

-1.02

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (2nd)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec (5th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (6th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (—)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	5–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao (7th)	3–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre - Campos

2.38

DWLWW

-0.12

—

100%

2.0

OK Energy FC Pre I

+10

2.00

LWWWL

-0.28

—

100%

3.0

SOLAR PRE- OGLESBY

1.33

+0.00

—

37%

4.6

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec

-12

1.29

WLWLL

-0.01

+0.04

23%

5.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (—)	0–8
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ (1st)	2–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	5–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (3rd)	1–7

Next: Sat Nov 7 at DKSC Pre- Guerrero See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (6th)	1–3	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre- Guerrero

-1

1.00

LLLWL

+0.19

-0.88

40%

4.9

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (2nd)	3–4
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao (7th)	5–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (3rd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Dallas North Academy (—)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas South Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–1	65%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec (5th)	3–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao

-9

0.60

LLLLW

-0.07

+0.13

7.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (6th)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (2nd)	3–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Dallas North Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (—)	1–2	27%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ (1st)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Celtic Pre

-12

0.50

LLWLL

+0.21

-0.51

7.6

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec (5th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (2nd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (3rd)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (6th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas North Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (—)	1–2	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao (7th)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas South Academy

-10

0.00

LLLLL

-0.01

+0.04

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Juliao (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (2nd)	4–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Otec (5th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	SOLAR PRE- RODRIGUEZ (1st)	2–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Dallas North Academy (—)	2–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre- Guerrero See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	DKSC Pre- Guerrero (6th)	1–3	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.25 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.