TAG Soccer Pre Gold

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 10 teams · TAG Soccer (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+24 goal diff · 28–4

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

-0.99 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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TAG Soccer Pre Gold
2nd · 2.60 PPG

Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez
4th · 2.17 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 18 ↗

47% 19% 34%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.1 against · 1.60 expected points)

Season so far	TAG Soccer Pre Gold	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez
Position	2nd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	4-1-1
Points per game	2.60	2.17
Goals for / game	5.6	3.5
Goals against / game	0.8	1.2
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	W L D W W
Biggest win	9–0 vs Sting Pre- J Oldham	7–1 at Sting Pre- J Oldham
Worst loss	—	0–2 at NTX United FC - Pre Costello
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.61	+1.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.99	+0.13

Common opponents: Sting Pre- J Oldham — we 9–0; they 7–1. FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine — we 1–1; they 5–2. BVBIA DFW Pre — we 10–2; they 3–1. Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas — we 2–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

Hard to break down
Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez concede only 1.2/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 19% / loss 34%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TAG Soccer Pre Gold – Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.33 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.17 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

23% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st 23%
2nd 62%
3rd 10%
4th 5%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	NTX United FC - Pre Costello	3.00 (+0.40)	1st (2.73)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

16 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link TAG Soccer Pre Gold to Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

6 favour them

+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 6th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +14	Away Dallas Soccer Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.60	2.43	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM	Fever United FC Pre 10th · 0-0-6 · GD -22	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–1	2.94	2.51	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 09:30 AM	Sting Pre- Ikpa 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +9	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	3–2	2.11	2.46	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

NTX United FC - Pre Costello

+22

3.00

WWWWW

-0.99

+0.10

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	7–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA DFW Pre · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine · Sun Nov 1 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	4–1	86%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	5–1	91%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	2–2	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TAG Soccer Pre Gold

+24

2.60

WDWWW

-0.99

+0.03

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	10–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	9–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sun Oct 25 vs Fever United FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Ikpa See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	6–1	97%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	3–2	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas

+21

2.17

WDLWW

-0.46

+1.62

97%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	5–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	8–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	11–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Pre- Ikpa · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX United FC - Pre Costello See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	3–2	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	2–2	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez

+14

2.17

WWDLW

+0.13

+0.04

100%

3.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	7–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	0–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	5–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TAG Soccer Pre Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	4–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- Ikpa

1.67

LLWWD

-0.51

+2.40

5.1

D	Sun Oct 18	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	7–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	7–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas · Sun Nov 1 vs TAG Soccer Pre Gold See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	2–3	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	2–3	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BVBIA DFW Pre

-3

1.17

LLWWD

+0.32

-0.22

6.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	2–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	2–10
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	1–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 at NTX United FC - Pre Costello · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- J Oldham See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	4–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine

-16

0.80

LLDWL

+0.91

-0.99

7.2

L	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	4–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	3–11
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	2–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- J Oldham · Sat Oct 31 vs NTX United FC - Pre Costello · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	3–2	58%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	3–2	56%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- CASTRO

-22

0.60

LWLLL

+0.90

-0.81

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	0–8
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	0–6
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	0–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sun Nov 1 at Fever United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	2–2	29%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	2–3	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Pre- J Oldham

-27

0.50

LWLLL

+0.48

-0.94

8.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez (4th)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 11	at	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	1–7
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Fever United FC Pre (10th)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	0–9

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine · Sat Nov 7 at BVBIA DFW Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	2–3	27%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Fever United FC Pre

-22

0.00

LLLLL

+0.12

+0.04

9.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas (3rd)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	BVBIA DFW Pre (6th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine (7th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Sting Pre- J Oldham (9th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	NTX United FC - Pre Costello (1st)	2–6
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Sting Pre- Ikpa (5th)	0–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 at TAG Soccer Pre Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	TAG Soccer Pre Gold (2nd)	1–6	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SOLAR PRE- CASTRO (8th)	2–2	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.