NTX United FC - Pre Costello
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 10 teams · NTX United FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:30 AM
Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3A ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.6 for, 1.5 against · 2.65 expected points)
| Season so far | NTX United FC - Pre Costello | BVBIA DFW Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 5-0-0 | 2-1-3 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 1.17 |
| Goals for / game | 5.0 | 2.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 3.3 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | D W W L L |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs Sting Pre- J Oldham | 6–0 at SOLAR PRE- CASTRO |
| Worst loss | — | 2–10 vs TAG Soccer Pre Gold |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.40 | -0.20 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.99 | +0.32 |
Common opponents: SOLAR PRE- CASTRO — we 4–0; they 6–0. Fever United FC Pre — we 6–2; they 5–2. Sting Pre- Ikpa — we 6–1; they 2–2. Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez — we 2–0; they 1–3.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 4–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 08:30 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the BVBIA DFW Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NTX United FC - Pre Costello – BVBIA DFW Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.50 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 74%
- 2nd 21%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
17 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link NTX United FC - Pre Costello to BVBIA DFW Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 08:30 AM |
BVBIA DFW Pre 6th · 2-1-3 · GD -3 |
Home Fairview Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.65 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -16 |
Away Fairview Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 91% |
5–1 | 2.78 | 2.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 09:30 AM |
Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +21 |
Away Fairview Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
2–2 | 1.44 | 2.73 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NTX United FC - Pre Costello | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 3 | +22 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.99 | +0.10 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs BVBIA DFW Pre · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine · Sun Nov 1 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | TAG Soccer Pre Gold | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 4 | +24 | 13 | 2.60 | WDWWW | -0.99 | +0.03 | 100% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sun Oct 25 vs Fever United FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Pre- Ikpa See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 8 | +21 | 13 | 2.17 | WDLWW | -0.46 | +1.62 | 97% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Pre- Ikpa · Sun Nov 1 vs NTX United FC - Pre Costello See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 7 | +14 | 13 | 2.17 | WWDLW | +0.13 | +0.04 | 100% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs TAG Soccer Pre Gold · Sun Oct 25 vs SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Sting Pre- Ikpa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWWD | -0.51 | +2.40 | 3% | 5.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Texas Warriors FC Pre- Salas · Sun Nov 1 vs TAG Soccer Pre Gold See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | BVBIA DFW Pre | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 7 | 1.17 | LLWWD | +0.32 | -0.22 | 0% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at NTX United FC - Pre Costello · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Pre- J Oldham See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 4 | 0.80 | LLDWL | +0.91 | -0.99 | 0% | 7.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Pre- J Oldham · Sat Oct 31 vs NTX United FC - Pre Costello · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SOLAR PRE- CASTRO | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | +0.90 | -0.81 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Atlético Dallas Youth Pre Hernandez · Sun Nov 1 at Fever United FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sting Pre- J Oldham | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 33 | -27 | 3 | 0.50 | LWLLL | +0.48 | -0.94 | 0% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Redwine · Sat Nov 7 at BVBIA DFW Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Fever United FC Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 30 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.12 | +0.04 | 0% | 9.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at TAG Soccer Pre Gold · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- CASTRO See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.