Sting Pre- Lucero

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 9 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd

3-1-2 record · 6 played

1.67 points per game

+7 goal diff · 17–10

LDWWWlast 5

93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4

+0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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Sting Pre- Lucero
3rd · 1.67 PPG

SOLAR PRE- MADRID
8th · 0.60 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

82% 10% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.2 for, 1.6 against · 2.54 expected points)

Season so far	Sting Pre- Lucero	SOLAR PRE- MADRID
Position	3rd	8th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-2	1-0-4
Points per game	1.67	0.60
Goals for / game	2.8	1.4
Goals against / game	1.7	4.4
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W D L	L L L L W
Biggest win	6–1 at FC Dallas South Academy	3–0 at FC Dallas South Academy
Worst loss	1–3 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez	0–9 at OK Energy FC Pre I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.87	-1.88
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.14	-0.08

Common opponents: Nido Dallas Pre - Campos — we 2–3; they 2–5. OK Energy FC Pre I — we 1–1; they 0–9. FC Dallas South Academy — we 6–1; they 3–0. DKSC Pre Guerrero — we 5–2; they 1–5. Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza — we 2–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
SOLAR PRE- MADRID concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–9 at OK Energy FC Pre I.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
SOLAR PRE- MADRID have lost 4 straight (form: WLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at Fairview Soccer Park .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR PRE- MADRID game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Pre- Lucero – SOLAR PRE- MADRID) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.86 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.86 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.57 PPG	4th▼ down 1	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.43 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

93% top 4

7% below the top 4

3.4 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 71%
4th 23%
5th 6%
6th <1%
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez	3.00 (+1.33)	1st (2.79)	14 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	OK Energy FC Pre I	2.38 (+0.71)	2nd (2.38)	10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

25 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Pre- Lucero to SOLAR PRE- MADRID through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

22 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.08 · 6th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	SOLAR PRE- MADRID 8th · 1-0-4 · GD -15	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	4–1	2.54	1.79	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -3	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	3–1	2.18	1.84	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez

+12

3.00

WWWWW

-0.08

-0.58

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	4–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- MADRID See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Pre I

+25

2.38

WDLWW

-0.32

—

100%

1.9

Sting Pre- Lucero

1.67

LDWWW

+0.14

-1.08

93%

3.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	6–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- MADRID · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	3–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza

1.67

WWWLD

-0.05

-0.46

91%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas South Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	2–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre - Campos

-1

1.25

LWLDW

-0.12

—

5.8

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor

-3

1.20

LWLWL

+0.37

-0.63

13%

5.7

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre Guerrero · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- MADRID See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	3–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre Guerrero

-10

1.00

LWWLL

+0.52

-1.26

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	5–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas South Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- MADRID

-15

0.60

WLLLL

-0.08

+0.63

8.0

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	0–9
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez · Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas South Academy

-22

0.00

LLLLL

+0.41

-0.08

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza · Sat Nov 7 at DKSC Pre Guerrero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.