SOLAR PRE- MADRID

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 9 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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8th

1-0-4 record · 5 played

0.60 points per game

-15 goal diff · 7–22

WLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.1

-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:30 PM

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SOLAR PRE- MADRID
8th · 0.60 PPG

Sting Pre- Lucero
3rd · 1.67 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 6A ↗

9% 10% 82%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.6 for, 4.2 against · 0.36 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR PRE- MADRID	Sting Pre- Lucero
Position	8th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-4	3-1-2
Points per game	0.60	1.67
Goals for / game	1.4	2.8
Goals against / game	4.4	1.7
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L L L L W	W W W D L
Biggest win	3–0 at FC Dallas South Academy	6–1 at FC Dallas South Academy
Worst loss	0–9 at OK Energy FC Pre I	1–3 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.88	+0.87
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.08	+0.14

Common opponents: FC Dallas South Academy — we 3–0; they 6–1. OK Energy FC Pre I — we 0–9; they 1–1. Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza — we 1–3; they 2–0. Nido Dallas Pre - Campos — we 2–5; they 2–3. DKSC Pre Guerrero — we 1–5; they 5–2.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–9 at OK Energy FC Pre I.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Sting Pre- Lucero have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
DKSC Pre Guerrero sit 7th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.60.
A win moves us above DKSC Pre Guerrero on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Pre- Lucero game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR PRE- MADRID – Sting Pre- Lucero) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.50 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Win 1.00 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Draw 0.67 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds
Loss 0.50 PPG	8th— holds	8th— holds	8th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

8.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th <1%
7th 2%
8th 90%
9th 8%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez	3.00 (+2.40)	1st (2.79)	21 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	OK Energy FC Pre I	2.38 (+1.78)	2nd (2.38)	17 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Sting Pre- Lucero	1.67 (+1.07)	3rd (1.84)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza	1.67 (+1.07)	4th (1.72)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos	1.25 (+0.65)	6th (1.25)	7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection
6	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor	1.20 (+0.60)	5th (1.32)	7 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
7	DKSC Pre Guerrero	1.00 (+0.40)	7th (1.20)	Win next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR PRE- MADRID to Sting Pre- Lucero through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

1 even

22 favour them

-4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.63 · 1st hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:30 PM	Sting Pre- Lucero 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD +7	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	9%	1–4	0.36	0.56	Upside
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +12	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.24	0.52	Upside
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -3	Away Fairview Soccer Park	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–3	0.55	0.52	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez

+12

3.00

WWWWW

-0.08

-0.58

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	4–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- MADRID See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	4–1	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Pre I

+25

2.38

WDLWW

-0.32

—

100%

2.0

Sting Pre- Lucero

1.67

LDWWW

+0.14

-1.08

93%

3.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	6–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR PRE- MADRID · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	3–1	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza

1.67

WWWLD

-0.05

-0.46

92%

3.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas South Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	2–0	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre - Campos

-1

1.25

LWLDW

-0.12

—

5.8

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor

-3

1.20

LWLWL

+0.37

-0.63

12%

5.7

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at DKSC Pre Guerrero · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Nov 7 vs SOLAR PRE- MADRID See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	1–3	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	3–1	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre Guerrero

-10

1.00

LWWLL

+0.52

-1.26

6.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 11	at	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 10	at	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	5–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas South Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- MADRID

-15

0.60

WLLLL

-0.08

+0.63

8.1

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	1–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	2–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	0–9
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Dallas South Academy (9th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Pre- Lucero · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez · Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	1–3	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dallas South Academy

-22

0.00

LLLLL

+0.41

-0.08

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Nido Dallas Pre - Campos (5th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	OK Energy FC Pre I (2nd)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	FC Dallas Youth Pre- Gomez (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Sting Pre- Lucero (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Challinor (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	SOLAR PRE- MADRID (8th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza · Sat Nov 7 at DKSC Pre Guerrero See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- Mendoza (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	DKSC Pre Guerrero (7th)	1–3	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.20 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.