Southwest MO Rush Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Heartland BU12 · 11 teams · Southwest MO Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 06:30 PM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 5S ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.7 against · 2.06 expected points)
| Season so far | Southwest MO Rush Pre | St. Louis Stars SC II Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 2nd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-0 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 6.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | L W W |
| Biggest win | 8–0 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre | 4–1 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red Pre |
| Worst loss | — | 0–2 at Toca Fusion Premier Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.58 | +0.49 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -1.21 | -0.07 |
Common opponents: FC Wichita Navy Pre — we 8–0; they 2–0.
Game plan
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Hard to break down
St. Louis Stars SC II Pre concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 63% / draw 17% / loss 20%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 06:30 PM at Paragon Star Sports Complex .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.A win moves us above Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Stars SC II Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Southwest MO Rush Pre – St. Louis Stars SC II Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 13 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 1 | 2nd— holds | 2nd— holds |
| Draw 2.50 PPG |
3rd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
4th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 20%
- 2nd 65%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 2%
- 6th
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II | 3.00 (+0.00) | 1st (2.88) | Win next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Southwest MO Rush Pre to St. Louis Stars SC II Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.21 · 8th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 06:30 PM |
St. Louis Stars SC II Pre 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Away Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
2–1 | 2.06 | 2.76 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Toca Fusion Premier Pre 3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.32 | 2.68 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
VSA Rush II Pre 11th · 0-0-3 · GD -12 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.85 | 2.70 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | +19 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.41 | -0.55 | 100% | 1.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Athletics Royal Pre · Sun Nov 15 at FC Wichita Navy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Southwest MO Rush Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | +18 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.21 | -0.21 | 98% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at St. Louis Stars SC II Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Toca Fusion Premier Pre · Sun Nov 15 at VSA Rush II Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Premier Pre | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.63 | +0.24 | 75% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central II Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Southwest MO Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Surf White Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Union KC Soccer Club Red Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWW | -1.00 | +0.89 | 80% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at Missouri Rush Pre- White See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC II Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.07 | +0.02 | 43% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Athletics Royal Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Southwest MO Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Missouri Rush Pre- White See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Kansas City Surf White Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | LLW | -0.86 | -0.95 | 3% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Missouri Rush Pre- White · Sat Nov 14 vs VSA Rush II Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Toca Fusion Premier Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting Iowa Central II Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 1.00 | LW | +1.35 | -0.40 | 1% | 7.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Premier Pre · Sat Nov 14 at FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Athletics Royal Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Wichita Navy Pre | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | +0.77 | +0.23 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush II Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central II Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Kansas City Athletics Royal Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.72 | +1.00 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC II Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Iowa Central II Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Missouri Rush Pre- White | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.17 | -0.04 | 0% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Surf White Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Union KC Soccer Club Red Pre · Sun Nov 15 at St. Louis Stars SC II Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | VSA Rush II Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.98 | +0.20 | 0% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Surf White Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Southwest MO Rush Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.