FC Wichita Navy Pre

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Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 5N ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.2 against · 1.60 expected points)

• They struggle to score
  VSA Rush II Pre average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 1 of 3.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  VSA Rush II Pre concede 4.7/game; worst result 1–11 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre- II.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs St. Louis Stars SC II Pre, 0–8 at Southwest MO Rush Pre.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 34%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  VSA Rush II Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• Away game
  Kickoff 05:00 PM at Paragon Star Sports Complex .

  Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

• What a win does
  Sporting Iowa Central II Pre sit 7th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

  A point moves us above Sporting Iowa Central II Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the VSA Rush II Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wichita Navy Pre – VSA Rush II Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 13 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 2%
6. 6th 21%
7. 7th 26%
8. 8th 29%
9. 9th 12%
10. 10th 7%
11. 11th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).