VSA Rush I Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Heartland BU12 · 12 teams · VSA Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 08:00 AM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 6N ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 2.0 for, 3.2 against · 0.82 expected points)
| Season so far | VSA Rush I Pre | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 10th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-3 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L | W W W |
| Biggest win | — | 3–1 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre |
| Worst loss | 1–6 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.08 | +0.43 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.34 | -0.90 |
Already played this season: Sun Sep 13 2–3 at Sporting Nebraska FC Pre (L)
Common opponents: Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre — we 2–3; they 3–2.
Game plan
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Sporting Nebraska FC Pre have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Early kickoff
Game time 08:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Sporting Nebraska FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (VSA Rush I Pre – Sporting Nebraska FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 14 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
12th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
10th— holds | 10th— holds | 12th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
11th▼ down 1 | 11th▼ down 1 | 12th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th 1%
- 7th 2%
- 8th 5%
- 9th 5%
- 10th 38%
- 11th 26%
- 12th 23%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.20 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.49) | 15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 2.33 (+2.33) | 3rd (2.17) | 12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 2.33 (+2.33) | 2nd (2.22) | 12 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre | 2.00 (+2.00) | 4th (1.76) | 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC I Pre | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (1.56) | 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (1.54) | 10 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 1.33 (+1.33) | 8th (1.33) | 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 8 | Kansas Rush Pre | 1.33 (+1.33) | 7th (1.46) | 7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 9 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 1.00 (+1.00) | 9th (1.09) | 5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link VSA Rush I Pre to Sporting Nebraska FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.44 · 10th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM |
Sporting Nebraska FC Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +4 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–3 | 0.82 | 0.20 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM |
FC Wichita Red Pre 11th · 0-0-2 · GD -7 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
3–2 | 1.75 | 0.51 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.90 | -0.49 | 94% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush I Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas Rush Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.66 | -0.12 | 86% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at FC Wichita Red Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.22 | -0.20 | 88% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.60 | +0.53 | 47% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC I Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.24 | +0.65 | 28% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.30 | +0.46 | 27% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 at St. Louis Stars SC I Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | -0.20 | +0.13 | 13% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kansas Rush Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 4 | 1.33 | LWD | +0.43 | -0.17 | 18% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWW | +0.04 | -1.20 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | VSA Rush I Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.34 | -0.44 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wichita Red Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Wichita Red Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.49 | +0.07 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush I Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Kansas City Surf Blue Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.58 | +0.23 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.