Toca Fusion Elite Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Heartland BU12 · 12 teams · Toca Fusion Athletic Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 06:30 PM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 6N ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.2 against · 2.02 expected points)
| Season so far | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | St. Louis Stars SC I Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-0 | 2-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D | L W W |
| Biggest win | 7–2 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre | 4–0 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre |
| Worst loss | — | 2–7 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.00 | +0.29 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.22 | -0.24 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 23 7–2 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre (W)
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
St. Louis Stars SC I Pre score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 62% / draw 15% / loss 22%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I sit 2nd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.33.A point moves us above Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the St. Louis Stars SC I Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Toca Fusion Elite Pre – St. Louis Stars SC I Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 13 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 7th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
6th▼ down 3 | 5th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 6 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 24%
- 2nd 27%
- 3rd 27%
- 4th 12%
- 5th 7%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3.00 (+0.67) | 1st (2.49) | 11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 2.33 (+0.00) | 3rd (2.17) | A point next game |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Toca Fusion Elite Pre to St. Louis Stars SC I Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.20 · 9th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 06:30 PM |
St. Louis Stars SC I Pre 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–2 | 2.02 | 2.26 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM |
Sporting Iowa Central Pre 7th · 1-1-1 · GD +2 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–1 | 1.97 | 2.20 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -8 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.34 | 2.22 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.90 | -0.49 | 95% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush I Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas Rush Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.66 | -0.12 | 86% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at FC Wichita Red Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.22 | -0.20 | 89% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.60 | +0.53 | 48% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC I Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.24 | +0.65 | 27% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.30 | +0.46 | 25% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 at St. Louis Stars SC I Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | -0.20 | +0.13 | 12% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Kansas Rush Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 4 | 1.33 | LWD | +0.43 | -0.17 | 18% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWW | +0.04 | -1.20 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | VSA Rush I Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.34 | -0.44 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wichita Red Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | FC Wichita Red Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.49 | +0.07 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush I Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Kansas City Surf Blue Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.58 | +0.23 | 0% | 11.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.