Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Heartland BU12 · 12 teams · Kansas City Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 03:30 PM
Paragon Star Sports Complex , Field 6S ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.0 against · 0.67 expected points)
| Season so far | Kansas City Surf Blue Pre | Kansas Rush Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 12th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-3 | 1-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals against / game | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L | D W L |
| Biggest win | — | 3–2 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre |
| Worst loss | 3–7 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 1–2 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.20 | +0.10 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.58 | +0.43 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 17%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at Paragon Star Sports Complex .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
FC Wichita Red Pre sit 11th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above FC Wichita Red Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Kansas Rush Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas City Surf Blue Pre – Kansas Rush Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 13 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 11th▲ up 1 | 12th— holds |
| Win 0.75 PPG |
10th▲ up 2 | 9th▲ up 3 | 12th— holds |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
10th▲ up 2 | 11th▲ up 1 | 12th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
12th— holds | 11th▲ up 1 | 12th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th <1%
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 3%
- 9th 5%
- 10th 12%
- 11th 41%
- 12th 38%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.49) | 18 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 2.33 (+2.33) | 3rd (2.17) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 2.33 (+2.33) | 2nd (2.22) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre | 2.00 (+2.00) | 4th (1.76) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC I Pre | 2.00 (+2.00) | 5th (1.56) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 6 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 2.00 (+2.00) | 6th (1.54) | 12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 7 | Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 1.33 (+1.33) | 8th (1.33) | 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection |
| 8 | Kansas Rush Pre | 1.33 (+1.33) | 7th (1.46) | 8 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 9 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 1.00 (+1.00) | 9th (1.09) | 6 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
| 10 | VSA Rush I Pre | 0.00 (+0.00) | 10th (0.51) | Already ahead |
| 11 | FC Wichita Red Pre | 0.00 (+0.00) | 11th (0.46) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
2 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Kansas City Surf Blue Pre to Kansas Rush Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.23 · 4th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 03:30 PM |
Kansas Rush Pre 8th · 1-1-1 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 0.17 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 08:00 AM |
Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre 9th · 2-0-4 · GD -4 |
Home Paragon Star Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.16 | 0.37 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 TBD |
Toca Fusion Elite Pre 3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.53 | 0.39 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Nebraska FC Pre | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.90 | -0.49 | 94% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush I Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas Rush Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 7 | 2.33 | WDW | -0.66 | -0.12 | 86% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at FC Wichita Red Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Toca Fusion Elite Pre | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 7 | 2.33 | DWW | +0.22 | -0.20 | 88% | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | WD | -0.60 | +0.53 | 47% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 vs St. Louis Stars SC I Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | St. Louis Stars SC I Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | -0.24 | +0.65 | 28% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Missouri Rush Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Missouri Rush Pre- Blue | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.30 | +0.46 | 27% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I · Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 at St. Louis Stars SC I Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sporting Iowa Central Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 4 | 1.33 | WDL | -0.20 | +0.13 | 13% | 6.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at FC Wichita Red Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Toca Fusion Elite Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Kansas City Athletics Navy Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Kansas Rush Pre | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 4 | 1.33 | LWD | +0.43 | -0.17 | 18% | 6.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre · Sat Nov 14 at Missouri Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWW | +0.04 | -1.20 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | VSA Rush I Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.34 | -0.44 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Nebraska FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Wichita Red Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Wichita Red Pre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.49 | +0.07 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting Iowa Central Pre · Sat Nov 14 at VSA Rush I Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Gretna Elite Academy Pre- I See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Kansas City Surf Blue Pre | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.58 | +0.23 | 0% | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Kansas Rush Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Union KC Soccer Club Navy Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs Toca Fusion Elite Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.