Lee County Premier PRE
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Florida BU12 · 9 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 10:00 AM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 5 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.5 for, 4.0 against · 0.37 expected points)
| Season so far | Lee County Premier PRE | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-1 | 3-0-0 |
| Points per game | 2.17 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.5 | 8.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W D W | W W W |
| Biggest win | 5–2 vs Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre | 15–0 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–2 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.53 | +3.56 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.82 | -0.58 |
Common opponents: AC Florida West Pre — we 1–1; they 6–1. Florida Premier FC PRE- I — we 0–2; they 4–1. Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre — we 5–2; they 15–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE score 8.3/game — well above the league's 2.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 9%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE have won 3 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Lakewood Ranch Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the SWFL PREMIER FC PRE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lee County Premier PRE – SWFL PREMIER FC PRE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.86 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.29 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.86 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 49%
- 4th 41%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | 3.00 (+0.83) | 1st (2.65) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 2 | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 2.57 (+0.40) | 2nd (2.62) | 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
How the results connect
13 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Lee County Premier PRE to SWFL PREMIER FC PRE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.40 · 2nd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM |
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.37 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 5 12:00 PM |
Cape Coral SA Pre 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +7 |
Home Kelly Road Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–2 | 1.50 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 11:30 AM |
AC Florida West Pre 7th · 1-1-3 · GD -15 |
Away Bayshore Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.17 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 10:30 AM |
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -42 |
Away far trip
North Collier Regional Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–1 | 2.81 | 1.98 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- I 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +38 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.31 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- II 5th · 2-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 09:00 AM |
Cape Coral SA Pre 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +7 |
Away Pelican Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.19 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 04:00 PM |
Lakeland Premier FC PRE 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home Kelly Road Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.78 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC PRE 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -14 |
Home Kelly Road Soccer Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.51 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 12:30 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +23 |
Home Kelly Road Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 1.75 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.58 | -0.36 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Nov 15 at Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sun Dec 6 vs Cape Coral SA Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 4 | +38 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWLW | -0.35 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Fishhawk Premier FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 at Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sat Jan 23 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Lee County Premier PRE | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWLW | -0.82 | +0.40 | 90% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 5 vs Cape Coral SA Pre · Sat Jan 30 at AC Florida West Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -0.09 | -0.09 | 91% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sat Dec 5 at Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Dec 6 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Florida Premier FC PRE- II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLLW | -0.95 | +0.48 | 11% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 23 at AC Florida West Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lakeland Premier FC PRE | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | +0.15 | +0.10 | 6% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sun Dec 13 at AC Florida West Pre · Sun Jan 10 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Florida West Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 4 | 0.80 | LWDLL | +1.66 | -0.48 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sun Dec 13 vs Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sat Jan 9 vs Fishhawk Premier FC PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Fishhawk Premier FC PRE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.28 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 9 at AC Florida West Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 46 | -42 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.79 | +0.38 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Cape Coral SA Pre · Sat Dec 12 at AC Florida West Pre · Sat Jan 23 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.