AC Florida West Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Florida BU12 · 9 teams · AC Florida West (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, 10:00 AM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.9 for, 1.6 against · 2.44 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Florida West Pre | Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 0-0-6 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 3.8 | 7.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D W L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 at Florida Premier FC PRE- II | — |
| Worst loss | 0–7 at Cape Coral SA Pre | 0–15 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.44 | -4.31 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.66 | +0.79 |
Common opponents: Florida Premier FC PRE- I — we 0–4; they 0–12. Florida Premier FC PRE- II — we 2–1; they 0–5. Lee County Premier PRE — we 1–1; they 2–5. SWFL PREMIER FC PRE — we 1–6; they 0–15.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.8); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre concede 7.7/game; worst result 0–15 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Florida Premier FC PRE- I, 0–7 at Cape Coral SA Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre have lost 6 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Florida West Pre – Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
7th— holds | 6th▲ up 1 | 7th— holds |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 10%
- 6th 23%
- 7th 45%
- 8th 20%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.65) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 2.57 (+1.77) | 2nd (2.62) | 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Lee County Premier PRE | 2.17 (+1.37) | 3rd (1.75) | 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 4 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 1.80 (+1.00) | 4th (1.74) | 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 5 | Florida Premier FC PRE- II | 1.20 (+0.40) | 5th (1.26) | 16 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 6 | Lakeland Premier FC PRE | 1.20 (+0.40) | 6th (1.18) | 16 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
How the results connect
19 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link AC Florida West Pre to Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.48 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 10:00 AM |
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -42 |
Home JetBlue Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.44 | 1.07 | Bank it |
| Sun Dec 13 01:00 PM |
Lakeland Premier FC PRE 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Home JetBlue Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–2 | 1.20 | 1.09 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 10:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC PRE 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -14 |
Home Bayshore Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–2 | 1.64 | 1.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 23 11:30 AM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- II 5th · 2-0-3 · GD +2 |
Home Bayshore Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.88 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 24 11:30 AM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- I 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +38 |
Home Bayshore Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
0–5 | 0.08 | 1.02 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 30 11:30 AM |
Lee County Premier PRE 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Bayshore Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 11:30 AM |
Cape Coral SA Pre 4th · 3-0-2 · GD +7 |
Home Bayshore Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 10:30 AM |
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre 9th · 0-0-6 · GD -42 |
Away far trip
North Collier Regional Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.19 | 1.05 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 02:00 PM |
Fishhawk Premier FC PRE 8th · 1-0-3 · GD -14 |
Away far trip
Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 38% |
2–2 | 1.32 | 1.07 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 01:30 PM |
Lakeland Premier FC PRE 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
Hunt Fountain Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 24% |
1–2 | 0.92 | 1.06 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 03:30 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +23 |
Away far trip
Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–6 | 0.05 | 1.00 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.58 | -0.36 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Nov 15 at Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sun Dec 6 vs Cape Coral SA Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 4 | +38 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWLW | -0.35 | -0.37 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Fishhawk Premier FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 at Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sat Jan 23 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Lee County Premier PRE | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWLW | -0.82 | +0.40 | 90% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 5 vs Cape Coral SA Pre · Sat Jan 30 at AC Florida West Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 9 | 1.80 | LWLWW | -0.09 | -0.09 | 91% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sat Dec 5 at Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Dec 6 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Florida Premier FC PRE- II | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLLW | -0.95 | +0.48 | 11% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 23 at AC Florida West Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Lakeland Premier FC PRE | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | +0.15 | +0.10 | 6% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sun Dec 13 at AC Florida West Pre · Sun Jan 10 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | AC Florida West Pre | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 4 | 0.80 | LWDLL | +1.66 | -0.48 | 1% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sun Dec 13 vs Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sat Jan 9 vs Fishhawk Premier FC PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Fishhawk Premier FC PRE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | 0.75 | LLLW | -0.06 | +0.28 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 9 at AC Florida West Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 46 | -42 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.79 | +0.38 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Cape Coral SA Pre · Sat Dec 12 at AC Florida West Pre · Sat Jan 23 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.