Idaho Rush Pre- II Black
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Far West BU12 · 10 teams · Idaho Rush Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM
Optimist Sports Complex, Field 13 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.6 against · 2.33 expected points)
| Season so far | Idaho Rush Pre- II Black | Boise Timbers Pre- Two |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-3 | 1-0-5 |
| Points per game | 1.14 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D D L | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 | 3–2 at Eastside Timbers Pre II Black |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo | 0–5 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- II |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.23 | -1.68 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.22 | -0.31 |
Common opponents: Columbia Premier SC Pre- II — we 1–4; they 0–5. FC Portland Pre- II — we 3–3; they 2–3. Capital FC PRE 2 B14 — we 3–3; they 0–4. Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 — we 4–1; they 0–3. Eastside Timbers Pre II Black — we 3–0; they 3–2.
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Boise Timbers Pre- Two concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–5 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- II.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Boise Timbers Pre- Two game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Idaho Rush Pre- II Black – Boise Timbers Pre- Two) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.38 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.38 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.13 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th 2%
- 5th 34%
- 6th 34%
- 7th 29%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.28 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United PDX Pre- II Blue | 3.00 (+1.86) | 3rd (2.28) | 46 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Columbia Premier SC Pre- II | 2.50 (+1.36) | 2nd (2.35) | 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo | 2.40 (+1.26) | 1st (2.44) | 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | FC Portland Pre- II | 2.17 (+1.03) | 4th (1.89) | 32 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 5 | Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 | 1.40 (+0.26) | 6th (1.30) | 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
How the results connect
26 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link Idaho Rush Pre- II Black to Boise Timbers Pre- Two through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.14 · 7th hardest of 10
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 20 11:00 AM no score posted |
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -2 |
Home Optimist Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 1.20 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Boise Timbers Pre- Two 9th · 1-0-5 · GD -14 |
Home Optimist Sports Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
3–1 | 2.33 | 1.33 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
FC Portland Pre- II 4th · 4-1-1 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.69 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 14 TBD |
Columbia Premier SC Pre- II 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +19 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–3 | 0.32 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Eastside Timbers Pre II Black 10th · 1-0-5 · GD -17 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 1.28 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
United PDX Pre- II Blue 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 27 TBD |
Boise Timbers Pre- Two 9th · 1-0-5 · GD -14 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
3–1 | 2.06 | 1.30 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 01:30 PM |
Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 5th · 2-1-2 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Lane Community College |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
2–2 | 1.28 | 1.30 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:30 PM |
Capital FC PRE 2 B14 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
CFC Pioneer Sportspark |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–2 | 1.17 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.37 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 8th · 1-1-4 · GD -19 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.47 | 1.31 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United PDX Pre- II Blue | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.17 | -0.19 | 100% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Boise Timbers Pre- Two · Sun Oct 25 vs Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Columbia Premier SC Pre- II | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.35 | -0.09 | 100% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Capital FC PRE 2 B14 · Sun Nov 15 at Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Portland Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.17 | -0.29 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs Boise Timbers Pre- Two · Sun Oct 25 at FC Portland Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 vs United PDX Pre- II Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | FC Portland Pre- II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 9 | +9 | 13 | 2.17 | LWDWW | -0.48 | +0.14 | 93% | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo · Sun Nov 1 at Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 · Sat Nov 21 at Columbia Premier SC Pre- II See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 7 | 1.40 | WDWLL | -0.00 | +0.11 | 3% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Idaho Rush Pre- II Black · Sun Nov 1 at Eastside Timbers Pre II Black · Sun Nov 15 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- II See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Idaho Rush Pre- II Black | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 8 | 1.14 | LDDWW | +0.22 | -0.14 | 2% | 5.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 · Sat Oct 31 vs Boise Timbers Pre- Two · Sat Feb 13 at FC Portland Pre- II See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Capital FC PRE 2 B14 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 4 | 0.67 | LLDWL | +0.36 | -0.15 | 2% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Eastside Timbers Pre II Black · Sun Nov 1 vs Columbia Premier SC Pre- II · Sun Nov 15 vs Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Portland City United SC PRE- RED 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | 0.67 | LDLLW | +0.01 | +0.35 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at United PDX Pre- II Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Portland Pre- II · Sun Nov 15 at Capital FC PRE 2 B14 See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Boise Timbers Pre- Two | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLWL | -0.31 | +0.44 | 0% | 8.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at United PDX Pre- II Blue · Sun Sep 13 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo · Sat Oct 31 at Idaho Rush Pre- II Black See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Eastside Timbers Pre II Black | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 | 0.50 | WLLLL | -0.04 | +0.36 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Capital FC PRE 2 B14 · Sun Nov 1 vs Eugene Metro FC Pre- Prem 2 · Sun Nov 22 at Oregon Premier FC Pre Tiempo See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.29 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.