North Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Twin Cities GU14 · 12 teams · North Surf (all teams)

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2nd

3-1-0 record · 4 played

2.50 points per game

+7 goal diff · 8–1

DWWWlast 4

97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7

-0.80 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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North Surf
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Shakopee Soccer Association
8th · 1.20 PPG

National Sports Center, Field 26 ↗

68% 19% 13%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.8 against · 2.23 expected points)

Season so far	North Surf	Shakopee Soccer Association
Position	2nd	8th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-0	1-3-1
Points per game	2.50	1.20
Goals for / game	2.0	1.4
Goals against / game	0.3	2.0
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W D	D W L D D
Biggest win	4–0 vs Wave SC	2–1 at Lakeville Soccer Club
Worst loss	—	2–6 vs Manitou FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.82	-0.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.80	+0.24

Common opponents: Wave SC — we 4–0; they 0–0.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 68% / draw 19% / loss 13%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Shakopee Soccer Association game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (North Surf – Shakopee Soccer Association) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.60 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.60 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.20 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 2
Loss 2.00 PPG	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

97% top 4

3% below the top 4

2.7 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 52%
3rd 23%
4th 21%
5th 2%
6th 1%
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Manitou FC	2.67 (+0.17)	1st (2.67)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link North Surf to Shakopee Soccer Association through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

2 even

3 favour them

+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.15 · 7th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 10 07:00 PM no score posted	DASC 3rd · 5-2-0 · GD +7	Away National Sports Center	●●●●○ Tough	35%	0–0	1.37	2.27	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM	Shakopee Soccer Association 8th · 1-3-1 · GD -3	Home National Sports Center	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–0	2.23	2.27	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Manitou FC

+13

2.67

WWWDW

-0.32

—

100%

1.0

North Surf

2.50

DWWW

-0.80

+0.15

97%

2.7

W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Wave SC (11th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	BOREAL FC (12th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tonka United SA (9th)	1–0
D	Fri Sep 18	at	Minnesota Rush (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 at DASC · Sun Oct 25 vs Shakopee Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	at	DASC (3rd)	0–0	35%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Shakopee Soccer Association (8th)	2–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DASC

2.43

WWWDD

-0.20

+0.82

100%

2.8

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Shakopee Soccer Association (8th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	Manitou FC (1st)	1–1
W	Fri Oct 9	at	Tonka United SA (9th)	1–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Minnesota Rush (6th)	2–0
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	St Croix (7th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Wave SC (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	BOREAL FC (12th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 10 vs North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 10 (no score yet)	vs	North Surf (2nd)	0–0	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Prior Lake SC

2.20

WDWWD

-0.36

+0.42

100%

3.4

D	Sun Oct 11	at	Lakeville Soccer Club (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Tonka United SA (9th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	BOREAL FC (12th)	3–0
D	Fri Sep 18	at	Shakopee Soccer Association (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	North Star FC (10th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Minnesota Rush See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Minnesota Rush (6th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakeville Soccer Club

1.40

WLWLD

-0.23

+0.33

5.7

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	Prior Lake SC (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Shakopee Soccer Association (8th)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Wave SC (11th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Manitou FC (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	North Star FC (10th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at St Croix See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	St Croix (7th)	2–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Minnesota Rush

1.40

DLLWW

+0.05

+0.62

6.1

W	Sat Oct 10	vs	BOREAL FC (12th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Tonka United SA (9th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	DASC (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	St Croix (7th)	3–4
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	North Surf (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Prior Lake SC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Prior Lake SC (4th)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

St Croix

1.20

LWLWL

-0.14

+0.52

6.6

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	North Star FC (10th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Wave SC (11th)	6–1
L	Fri Sep 25	at	DASC (3rd)	2–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Minnesota Rush (6th)	4–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Manitou FC (1st)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lakeville Soccer Club See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lakeville Soccer Club (5th)	1–2	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Shakopee Soccer Association

-3

1.20

DDLWD

+0.24

+0.82

8.3

D	Sun Oct 11	vs	DASC (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Lakeville Soccer Club (5th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Manitou FC (1st)	2–6
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Wave SC (11th)	0–0
D	Fri Sep 18	vs	Prior Lake SC (4th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at North Surf See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	North Surf (2nd)	0–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tonka United SA

1.00

WLLLW

+0.02

—

8.2

North Star FC

-8

1.00

LLLLW

+0.27

—

10.0

Wave SC

-20

0.17

LLLLL

+0.57

—

11.0

BOREAL FC

-14

0.00

LLLLL

+0.31

—

12.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.64 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.