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Sting Royal

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU17 · 14 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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14th
0-1-3 record · 4 played
0.25 points per game
-10 goal diff · 2–12
LLDLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.8
+0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 09:00 AM

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Sting Royal
14th · 0.25 PPG
at
FC Westlake Blue
11th · 0.50 PPG

Onion Creek Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.9 for, 1.8 against · 0.79 expected points)

Season so farSting RoyalFC Westlake Blue
Position14th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-30-2-2
Points per game0.250.50
Goals for / game0.50.8
Goals against / game3.01.5
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L D L LD L D L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–4 at FC Dallas Youth1–3 at SOLAR SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.31-0.35
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.39+0.17

Common opponents: West Side Alliance — we 1–4; they 0–1. OK Energy FC Texas — we 1–1; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FC Westlake Blue average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 4.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Sting Black, 0–4 at FC Dallas Youth.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Onion Creek Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FC Westlake White sit 13th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.25.

    A point moves us above FC Westlake White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Royal – FC Westlake Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.20 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds
Win
0.80 PPG
11th▲ up 3 11th▲ up 3 14th— holds
Draw
0.40 PPG
12th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 2 14th— holds
Loss
0.20 PPG
14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 20%
  13. 13th 30%
  14. 14th 37%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.15 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 FC Dallas Youth 3.00 (+2.75) 1st (2.40) 38 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 SOLAR SC 2.67 (+2.42) 2nd (2.33) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Albion Hurricanes FC 2.60 (+2.35) 3rd (2.19) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Sting Black 1.67 (+1.42) 7th (1.48) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5 Dallas Texans 1.57 (+1.32) 8th (1.38) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6 DKSC 1.50 (+1.25) 6th (1.49) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 Lonestar ATX Royal 1.50 (+1.25) 4th (1.63) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 Challenge 1.40 (+1.15) 5th (1.58) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
9 West Side Alliance 1.25 (+1.00) 9th (1.21) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
10 OK Energy FC Texas 0.88 (+0.63) 11th (0.93) 11 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
11 FC Westlake Blue 0.50 (+0.25) 10th (1.02) A point next game
12 Lonestar SAT 0.33 (+0.08) 12th (0.60) Already ahead
13 FC Westlake White 0.33 (+0.08) 14th (0.51) Already ahead

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Royal to FC Westlake Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 0–0 1–4 1–0 0–4 5–1 4–0 0–3 1–3 2–2 Sting Royal 14th OK Energy FC Texas 10th West Side Alliance 9th FC Dallas Youth 1st Sting Black 4th Dallas Texans 5th FC Westlake Blue 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 5 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 8th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
FC Westlake Blue
11th · 0-2-2 · GD -3
Away far trip
Onion Creek Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.79 0.36 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Lonestar ATX Royal
7th · 1-3-0 · GD +1
Away far trip
Lakeline Park
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–2 0.43 0.37 Upside
Sat Nov 21
03:00 PM
Albion Hurricanes FC
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +6
Away far trip
Campbell Road Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
0–2 0.30 0.36 Upside
Sun Nov 22
03:00 PM
Challenge
8th · 2-1-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Burroughs Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.39 0.36 Upside
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
DKSC
6th · 2-3-1 · GD +2
Away
Clark East Field
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.49 0.38 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
SOLAR SC
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +15
Home
●●●●● Very tough
5%
0–3 0.23 0.36 Upside
Sat May 1
06:00 AM
FC Westlake White
13th · 0-2-4 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.43 0.46 Upside
Sun May 2
06:00 AM
Lonestar SAT
12th · 0-2-4 · GD -9
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 0.53 Upside
Sat May 8
03:00 PM
Dallas Texans
5th · 3-2-2 · GD -2
Home
Sting National Training Center
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.85 0.55 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 FC Dallas Youth 3300 131+12 93.00 WWW -0.68 +0.05 99% 1.7
2 SOLAR SC 6510 194+15 162.67 WWWWD -0.37 +0.16 99% 2.0
3 Albion Hurricanes FC 5410 104+6 132.60 WDWWW +0.02 -0.08 96% 2.6
4 Sting Black 6312 128+4 101.67 LWLDW -0.45 +0.38 16% 6.5
5 Dallas Texans 7322 1214-2 111.57 WWLDD -0.03 +0.13 6% 7.4
6 DKSC 6231 97+2 91.50 LDDDW -0.02 -0.01 17% 6.3
7 Lonestar ATX Royal 4130 98+1 61.50 DWDD +0.18 -0.06 38% 5.5
8 Challenge 5212 1210+2 71.40 LLDWW +0.10 -0.08 27% 5.8
9 West Side Alliance 8314 1416-2 101.25 LWLLL -0.05 +0.25 1% 8.5
10 OK Energy FC Texas 8143 1116-5 70.88 DLDLL -0.05 +0.31 0% 10.4
11 FC Westlake Blue 4022 36-3 20.50 LDLD +0.17 +0.01 1% 9.9
12 Lonestar SAT 6024 615-9 20.33 LLLDL +0.21 +0.02 0% 12.5
13 FC Westlake White 6024 415-11 20.33 LLLDL +0.21 +0.05 0% 13.0
14 Sting Royal 4013 212-10 10.25 LLDL +0.39 +0.02 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.