Lonestar ATX Royal
ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU17 · 14 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
Wagner Middle School, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.2 against · 1.88 expected points)
| Season so far | Lonestar ATX Royal | FC Westlake Blue |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-3-0 | 0-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D D W D | D L D L |
| Biggest win | 5–4 at West Side Alliance | — |
| Worst loss | — | 1–3 at SOLAR SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.23 | -0.35 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.18 | +0.17 |
Common opponents: OK Energy FC Texas — we 2–2; they 0–0. West Side Alliance — we 5–4; they 0–1. Dallas Texans — we 1–1; they 2–2. SOLAR SC — we 1–1; they 1–3.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Westlake Blue average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 22% / loss 23%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
DKSC sit 6th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.A point moves us above DKSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX Royal – FC Westlake Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.40 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.80 PPG |
4th▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 3 | 6th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.40 PPG |
8th▼ down 1 | 7th— holds | 9th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.20 PPG |
9th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 1 | 10th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 29%
- 5th 19%
- 6th 16%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 8%
- 9th 5%
- 10th 2%
- 11th 1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th
- 14th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth | 3.00 (+1.50) | 1st (2.40) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 2 | SOLAR SC | 2.67 (+1.17) | 2nd (2.33) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 3 | Albion Hurricanes FC | 2.60 (+1.10) | 3rd (2.19) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 4 | Sting Black | 1.67 (+0.17) | 7th (1.48) | A point next game |
| 5 | Dallas Texans | 1.57 (+0.07) | 8th (1.38) | A point next game |
| 6 | DKSC | 1.50 (+0.00) | 6th (1.49) | A point next game |
How the results connect
6 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX Royal to FC Westlake Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.06 · 12th hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
FC Westlake Blue 11th · 0-2-2 · GD -3 |
Home Wagner Middle School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–1 | 1.88 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 09:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home Lakeline Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.67 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Sting Royal 14th · 0-1-3 · GD -10 |
Home Lakeline Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
2–1 | 2.44 | 1.57 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Albion Hurricanes FC 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +6 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.12 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
FC Westlake White 13th · 0-2-4 · GD -11 |
Home Lakeline Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.37 | 1.61 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
Lonestar SAT 12th · 0-2-4 · GD -9 |
Home Round Rock MultiPurpose Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 1.67 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Sting Black 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 1.66 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
DKSC 6th · 2-3-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.48 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 01:00 PM |
Challenge 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +2 |
Home Lakeline Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
2–2 | 1.54 | 1.63 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Dallas Youth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.68 | +0.05 | 99% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sun Nov 8 at FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 21 at Challenge See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SOLAR SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWWD | -0.37 | +0.16 | 99% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Black · Sat Dec 5 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 13 at West Side Alliance See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Albion Hurricanes FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 13 | 2.60 | WDWWW | +0.02 | -0.08 | 96% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar SAT · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake White · Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Royal See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Sting Black | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | 1.67 | LWLDW | -0.45 | +0.38 | 14% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Oct 25 at West Side Alliance · Sat Nov 21 at SOLAR SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Dallas Texans | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 | 1.57 | WWLDD | -0.03 | +0.13 | 6% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 6 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Apr 24 at FC Dallas Youth See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | DKSC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LDDDW | -0.02 | -0.01 | 17% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sat Apr 17 vs Sting Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lonestar ATX Royal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | DWDD | +0.18 | -0.06 | 39% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Royal See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Challenge | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 7 | 1.40 | LLDWW | +0.10 | -0.08 | 28% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake White · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar SAT · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | West Side Alliance | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 10 | 1.25 | LWLLL | -0.05 | +0.25 | 1% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Black · Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC Texas See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | OK Energy FC Texas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | 0.88 | DLDLL | -0.05 | +0.31 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Black · Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC · Sat Nov 7 vs West Side Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Westlake Blue | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | 0.50 | LDLD | +0.17 | +0.01 | 1% | 9.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Lonestar SAT | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 2 | 0.33 | LLLDL | +0.21 | +0.02 | 0% | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 8 at Challenge · Sat Apr 17 vs FC Westlake White See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | FC Westlake White | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 2 | 0.33 | LLLDL | +0.21 | +0.05 | 0% | 13.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge · Sun Nov 8 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Sting Royal | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +0.39 | +0.02 | 0% | 12.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Nov 21 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.