SOLAR SC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU17 · 14 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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2nd

5-1-0 record · 6 played

2.67 points per game

+15 goal diff · 19–4

WWWWDlast 5

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0

-0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 21, 09:00 AM

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SOLAR SC
2nd · 2.67 PPG

Sting Black
4th · 1.67 PPG

Carroll Senior High School, Field 1 ↗

67% 18% 15%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.1 against · 2.18 expected points)

Season so far	SOLAR SC	Sting Black
Position	2nd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	5-1-0	3-1-2
Points per game	2.67	1.67
Goals for / game	3.2	2.0
Goals against / game	0.7	1.3
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	D W W W W	W D L W L
Biggest win	6–0 vs FC Westlake White	3–0 vs Sting Royal
Worst loss	—	1–3 at Dallas Texans
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.46	+0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.37	-0.45

Common opponents: Lonestar SAT — we 3–1; they 4–1. FC Westlake White — we 6–0; they 1–1. Dallas Texans — we 4–0; they 1–3.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 18% / loss 15%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR SC – Sting Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Nov 16 – Sun Nov 22); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.71 PPG	2nd— holds	1st▲ up 1	2nd— holds
Win 2.71 PPG	2nd— holds	1st▲ up 1	2nd— holds
Draw 2.43 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.29 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

33% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

2.0 average finish

1st 33%
2nd 40%
3rd 22%
4th 4%
5th 1%
6th <1%
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 2.85 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Dallas Youth	3.00 (+0.33)	1st (2.40)	23 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection

How the results connect

14 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR SC to Sting Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 4th hardest of 14

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 21 09:00 AM	Sting Black 4th · 3-1-2 · GD +4	Home Carroll Senior High School	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.60	Swing game
Sat Dec 5 11:00 AM	OK Energy FC Texas 10th · 1-4-3 · GD -5	Away far trip North Oklahoma City FC	●●○○○ Lean win	74%	2–1	2.36	2.57	Bank it
Sun Dec 13 11:00 AM	West Side Alliance 9th · 3-1-4 · GD -2	Away far trip RiverCity Parks	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	2–1	2.25	2.53	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Sting Royal 14th · 0-1-3 · GD -10	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	3–0	2.68	2.55	Bank it
Sat May 1 11:00 AM	Challenge 8th · 2-1-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Burroughs Park	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.06	2.50	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	Albion Hurricanes FC 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +6	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.58	2.43	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	FC Dallas Youth 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12	Away	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.15	2.33	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Dallas Youth

+12

3.00

WWW

-0.68

+0.05

99%

1.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Royal (14th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	5–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sun Nov 8 at FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 21 at Challenge See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Challenge (8th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sting Black (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	DKSC (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Dallas Texans (5th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR SC

+15

2.67

WWWWD

-0.37

+0.16

99%

2.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Dallas Texans (5th)	4–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC (6th)	2–1

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Black · Sat Dec 5 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 13 at West Side Alliance See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Black (4th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting Royal (14th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat May 1	at	Challenge (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun May 2	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion Hurricanes FC

2.60

WDWWW

+0.02

-0.08

96%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Black (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC (6th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Challenge (8th)	3–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar SAT · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake White · Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Royal See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Royal (14th)	2–0	82%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Dallas Texans (5th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun May 2	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–1	31%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	1–0	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Black

1.67

LWLDW

-0.45

+0.38

16%

6.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar SAT (12th)	4–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake White (13th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge (8th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Royal (14th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Oct 25 at West Side Alliance · Sat Nov 21 at SOLAR SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	DKSC (6th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans

-2

1.57

WWLDD

-0.03

+0.13

7.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 11	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Black (4th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC (6th)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 6 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Apr 24 at FC Dallas Youth See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	2–1	48%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	2–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 1	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	1–2	16%
·	Sun May 2	at	Challenge (8th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Royal (14th)	2–1	58%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC

1.50

LDDDW

-0.02

-0.01

16%

6.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Westlake White (13th)	2–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT (12th)	0–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge (8th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sat Apr 17 vs Sting Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Sting Royal (14th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun May 2	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Black (4th)	1–1	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX Royal

1.50

DWDD

+0.18

-0.06

37%

5.5

D	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	5–4
D	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth · Sun Nov 8 vs Sting Royal See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting Royal (14th)	2–1	77%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	2–1	74%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun May 2	vs	DKSC (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Challenge (8th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge

1.40

LLDWW

+0.10

-0.08

28%

5.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	2–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	DKSC (6th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Black (4th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake White · Sun Nov 8 vs Lonestar SAT · Sat Nov 21 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	3–1	76%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sting Royal (14th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–2	20%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Dallas Texans (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat May 8	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

-2

1.25

LWLLL

-0.05

+0.25

8.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge (8th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Royal (14th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	4–5
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 6	at	Lonestar SAT (12th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 5	at	FC Westlake White (13th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Black · Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC Texas See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC (6th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	1–2	36%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Texas

-5

0.88

DLDLL

-0.05

+0.31

10.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Challenge (8th)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting Royal (14th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 6	at	FC Westlake White (13th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 5	at	Lonestar SAT (12th)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Black · Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC · Sat Nov 7 vs West Side Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	DKSC (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Blue

-3

0.50

LDLD

+0.17

+0.01

9.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Westlake White · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Royal (14th)	1–0	58%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Challenge (8th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	vs	DKSC (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	0–1	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT

-9

0.33

LLLDL

+0.21

+0.02

12.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–4
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC (6th)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 6	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–4
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	2–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Nov 8 at Challenge · Sat Apr 17 vs FC Westlake White See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Challenge (8th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun May 2	at	Sting Royal (14th)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake White

-11

0.33

LLLDL

+0.21

+0.05

13.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	DKSC (6th)	1–2
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Black (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–6
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 6	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	0–3
D	Sat Sep 5	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge · Sun Nov 8 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	0–1	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Challenge (8th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Lonestar SAT (12th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–2	11%
·	Sat May 1	at	Sting Royal (14th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–3	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Royal

-10

0.25

LLDL

+0.39

+0.02

12.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–4
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (10th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	West Side Alliance (9th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Black (4th)	0–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake Blue · Sun Nov 8 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Nov 21 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake Blue (11th)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (7th)	1–2	10%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Challenge (8th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	DKSC (6th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Westlake White (13th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Lonestar SAT (12th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Dallas Texans (5th)	1–2	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.69 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.