Sporting California USA
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southern Cal GU15 · 13 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:00 AM
San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.3 against · 1.63 expected points)
| Season so far | Sporting California USA | San Diego Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 0-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals for / game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W | L L D L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs LV Heat Surf | — |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Pateadores NB | 1–6 vs Empire Surf |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.69 | -0.99 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.20 | +1.08 |
Common opponents: Pateadores NB — we 0–5; they 2–4.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
San Diego Surf average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
San Diego Surf concede 2.8/game; worst result 1–6 vs Empire Surf.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 at Pateadores NB, 0–1 vs Slammers FC HB Koge.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 24% / loss 30%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
LAFC sit 8th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above LAFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the San Diego Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – San Diego Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 11th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
7th▲ up 2 | 8th▲ up 1 | 9th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 11th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 9th— holds | 11th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 1%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 15%
- 9th 21%
- 10th 19%
- 11th 19%
- 12th 13%
- 13th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Empire Surf | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.64) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SLAMMERS FC | 3.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (2.19) | 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 3 | Pateadores NB | 2.50 (+1.50) | 3rd (2.04) | 27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 4 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 2.20 (+1.20) | 4th (2.02) | 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 2.00 (+1.00) | 5th (1.81) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 6 | Blues | 2.00 (+1.00) | 6th (1.58) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 7 | Legends FC | 1.33 (+0.33) | 7th (1.38) | A point next game |
| 8 | LAFC | 1.25 (+0.25) | 8th (1.08) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to San Diego Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.24 · 5th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:00 AM |
San Diego Surf 12th · 0-1-4 · GD -10 |
Home San Bernardino Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.63 | 1.16 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:45 PM |
Legends FC - Del Mar 11th · 0-1-1 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 11:45 AM |
SLAMMERS FC 2nd · 3-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away far trip
Orange County Great Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
0–2 | 0.38 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM |
Rebels SC 10th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf? |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.09 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 06:15 PM |
LAFC 8th · 1-2-1 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Alemany High School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
0–1 | 1.07 | 1.08 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Beach Futbol Club Black 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
0–1 | 0.77 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Empire Surf 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +23 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.15 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Legends FC 7th · 1-1-1 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.91 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Blues 6th · 2-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 0.95 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Empire Surf | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.12 | +0.10 | 100% | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Oct 24 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Oct 31 vs Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SLAMMERS FC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | +9 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -1.38 | +0.38 | 86% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Rebels SC · Sat Oct 31 at Pateadores NB · Sat Nov 14 vs Sporting California USA See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Pateadores NB | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.80 | +0.39 | 76% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 at Empire Surf · Sat Nov 14 vs Blues See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Slammers FC HB Koge | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 11 | 2.20 | DWWWD | +0.05 | -0.05 | 76% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs LAFC · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sun Nov 22 at Empire Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Beach Futbol Club Black | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | +0.03 | +0.00 | 42% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Empire Surf · Sat Oct 31 vs Blues · Sat Nov 7 vs LAFC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Blues | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 6 | 2.00 | LWW | -0.18 | +0.07 | 16% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LAFC · Sat Oct 31 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sat Nov 7 vs Legends FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Legends FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1.33 | DWL | +0.16 | +0.04 | 4% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Rebels SC · Sat Oct 24 vs Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Oct 31 at Empire Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | LAFC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | 1.25 | DLDW | -0.90 | +0.55 | 1% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Blues · Sat Oct 31 at Slammers FC HB Koge · Sat Nov 7 at Beach Futbol Club Black See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Sporting California USA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 | 1.00 | WLL | -0.20 | +0.24 | 0% | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Diego Surf · Sat Oct 31 at Legends FC - Del Mar · Sat Nov 14 at SLAMMERS FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Rebels SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | LWLL | +0.18 | +0.09 | 0% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 24 vs SLAMMERS FC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Diego Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Legends FC - Del Mar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | 0.50 | DL | -0.49 | +0.27 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 at Empire Surf · Sat Oct 24 at Legends FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Sporting California USA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | San Diego Surf | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +1.08 | -0.48 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sporting California USA · Sat Nov 7 at Rebels SC · Sun Nov 22 vs LV Heat Surf See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | LV Heat Surf | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 29 | -27 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.75 | -0.22 | 0% | 12.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 at Beach Futbol Club Black · Sun Nov 22 at San Diego Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Legends FC - Del Mar See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.86 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.