GSA
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU17 · 9 teams · Gwinnett Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM
Harris Teeter Fields at Palisades, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.4 for, 0.9 against · 1.75 expected points)
| Season so far | GSA | Charlotte SA Gold |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-2 | 3-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| Goals for / game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W W L | W L D L W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 at Concorde Fire Premier | 1–0 vs South Carolina United |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at CESA Liberty | 0–5 at CESA Liberty |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.26 | -0.44 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.03 | +0.15 |
Common opponents: Atlanta Fire United — we 1–1, 4–1; they 1–0. United Futbol Academy — we 0–2, 2–2; they 0–2. South Carolina United — we 1–1; they 1–0, 0–0. CESA Liberty — we 0–3; they 1–1, 0–5. Alabama FC — we 2–1; they 2–1. Concorde Fire Premier — we 3–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Charlotte SA Gold average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.4); blanked in 4 of 8.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs United Futbol Academy, 0–3 at CESA Liberty.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 27% / loss 23%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Harris Teeter Fields at Palisades.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Charlotte SA Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GSA – Charlotte SA Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 1.67 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.44 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 62%
- 4th 24%
- 5th 8%
- 6th 3%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CESA Liberty | 2.45 (+0.95) | 1st (2.38) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 2.44 (+0.94) | 2nd (2.29) | 28 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
70 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link GSA to Charlotte SA Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
Charlotte SA Gold 5th · 3-2-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Harris Teeter Fields at Palisades |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–0 | 1.75 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
South Carolina United 6th · 3-3-5 · GD +0 |
Home GSA South |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–0 | 1.63 | 1.54 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
CESA Liberty 1st · 8-3-0 · GD +18 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
0–1 | 0.74 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Premier 8th · 2-1-6 · GD -12 |
Home GSA South |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.25 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
Alabama FC 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -3 |
Home GSA South |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–0 | 1.76 | 1.55 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 09:00 AM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-0-4 · GD -2 |
Home GSA South |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.78 | 1.57 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-0-4 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.52 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 20 01:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 5th · 3-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home GSA East |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
1–0 | 1.96 | 1.59 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CESA Liberty | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 27 | 2.45 | WWWWD | -0.25 | +0.04 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at GSA · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 22 | 2.44 | WWLWD | +0.01 | -0.32 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 at Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | GSA | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 | 1.50 | LWWWD | +0.03 | -0.13 | 88% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 1 vs CESA Liberty See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 | 1.50 | WLWLW | +0.02 | -0.03 | 67% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Charlotte SA Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 11 | 1.38 | WLDLW | +0.15 | -0.09 | 22% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | South Carolina United | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 12 | 1.09 | LWLWW | -0.13 | +0.28 | 10% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GSA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Alabama FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | 0.89 | WLLLD | +0.24 | -0.29 | 11% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Concorde Fire Premier | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWLL | +0.24 | -0.09 | 2% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Atlanta Fire United | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 | 0.44 | LLLLL | +0.01 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 at Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.