Concorde Fire Premier
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU17 · 9 teams · Concorde Fire (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 02:00 PM
Georgia Sports Park , field 6 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.6 against · 1.73 expected points)
| Season so far | Concorde Fire Premier | Atlanta Fire United |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-6 | 1-1-7 |
| Points per game | 0.78 | 0.44 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W L L | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 4–3 at Atlanta Fire United | 2–1 vs Alabama FC |
| Worst loss | 3–6 at United Futbol Academy | 1–4 vs GSA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.89 | -0.96 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.24 | +0.01 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 4–3 at Atlanta Fire United (W)
Common opponents: CESA Liberty — we 0–2, 1–4; they 0–2. South Carolina United — we 2–2, 0–2; they 0–2. GSA — we 0–3; they 1–1, 1–4. Concorde Fire Platinum — we 1–2; they 1–2, 0–2. Charlotte SA Gold — we 1–0; they 0–1.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Atlanta Fire United concede 2.1/game; worst result 1–4 vs GSA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at CESA Liberty, 0–3 vs GSA, 0–2 vs South Carolina United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 21% / loss 29%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Atlanta Fire United have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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What a win does
Alabama FC sit 7th on 0.89 PPG; we are on 0.78.A point moves us above Alabama FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Atlanta Fire United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Concorde Fire Premier – Atlanta Fire United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.00 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
7th▲ up 1 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.80 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.70 PPG |
9th▼ down 1 | 8th— holds | 9th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 11%
- 7th 17%
- 8th 53%
- 9th 13%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 7 remaining known games (max 1.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CESA Liberty | 2.45 (+1.67) | 1st (2.38) | 33 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 2.44 (+1.66) | 2nd (2.29) | 33 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | GSA | 1.50 (+0.72) | 3rd (1.59) | 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.50 (+0.72) | 4th (1.44) | 17 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection |
| 5 | Charlotte SA Gold | 1.38 (+0.60) | 5th (1.20) | 16 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 6 | South Carolina United | 1.09 (+0.31) | 6th (1.12) | 11 of 21 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection |
| 7 | Alabama FC | 0.89 (+0.11) | 7th (1.10) | A point next game |
How the results connect
69 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Concorde Fire Premier to Atlanta Fire United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 5th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 10 03:00 PM no score posted |
Alabama FC 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -3 |
Away far trip
Rathmell Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 9th · 1-1-7 · GD -11 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.73 | 0.88 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +13 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
1–3 | 0.41 | 0.84 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
GSA 3rd · 3-3-2 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
GSA South |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 0.82 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 04:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-0-4 · GD -2 |
Away Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Charlotte SA Gold 5th · 3-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 02:00 PM |
Alabama FC 7th · 2-2-5 · GD -3 |
Home Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.22 | 0.89 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CESA Liberty | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 27 | 2.45 | WWWWD | -0.25 | +0.04 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at GSA · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 22 | 2.44 | WWLWD | +0.01 | -0.32 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 at Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | GSA | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 | 1.50 | LWWWD | +0.03 | -0.13 | 86% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 1 vs CESA Liberty See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 | 1.50 | WLWLW | +0.02 | -0.03 | 67% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Charlotte SA Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 11 | 1.38 | WLDLW | +0.15 | -0.09 | 22% | 5.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | South Carolina United | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 12 | 1.09 | LWLWW | -0.13 | +0.28 | 11% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GSA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Alabama FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | 0.89 | WLLLD | +0.24 | -0.29 | 12% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Concorde Fire Premier | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWLL | +0.24 | -0.09 | 1% | 7.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Atlanta Fire United | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 | 0.44 | LLLLL | +0.01 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 at Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.