CESA Liberty
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU17 · 9 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 04:00 PM
Georgia Sports Park , field 4 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.9 for, 0.7 against · 2.21 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Liberty | Concorde Fire Platinum |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 8-3-0 | 4-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.45 | 1.50 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W W W W | W L W L W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs Charlotte SA Gold | 2–0 at Atlanta Fire United |
| Worst loss | — | 1–4 at United Futbol Academy |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.20 | -0.13 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.25 | +0.02 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–1 vs Concorde Fire Platinum (W)
Common opponents: Concorde Fire Premier — we 2–0, 4–1; they 2–1. Alabama FC — we 0–0, 0–0; they 1–2. Atlanta Fire United — we 2–0; they 2–1, 2–0. United Futbol Academy — we 1–0; they 1–3, 1–4. South Carolina United — we 2–1; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Alabama FC, 0–0 at Alabama FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 67% / draw 21% / loss 12%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Georgia Sports Park .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Concorde Fire Platinum game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – Concorde Fire Platinum) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.50 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.25 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 63%
- 2nd 37%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
75 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Liberty to Concorde Fire Platinum through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.04 · 3rd hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 04:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 4th · 4-0-4 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
1–0 | 2.21 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
GSA 3rd · 3-3-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
1–0 | 2.01 | 2.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 04:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 9th · 1-1-7 · GD -11 |
Home Wenwood |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
2–0 | 2.69 | 2.42 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 2nd · 7-1-1 · GD +13 |
Home Wenwood |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
1–0 | 1.91 | 2.39 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 05:00 PM |
South Carolina United 6th · 3-3-5 · GD +0 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
1–0 | 2.19 | 2.38 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | CESA Liberty | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 27 | 2.45 | WWWWD | -0.25 | +0.04 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at GSA · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 22 | 2.44 | WWLWD | +0.01 | -0.32 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 at Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | GSA | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 | 1.50 | LWWWD | +0.03 | -0.13 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 1 vs CESA Liberty See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 12 | 1.50 | WLWLW | +0.02 | -0.03 | 67% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Charlotte SA Gold | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 11 | 1.38 | WLDLW | +0.15 | -0.09 | 21% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | South Carolina United | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 11 | +0 | 12 | 1.09 | LWLWW | -0.13 | +0.28 | 12% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GSA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sat Nov 14 vs United Futbol Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Alabama FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | 0.89 | WLLLD | +0.24 | -0.29 | 13% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Concorde Fire Premier | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 7 | 0.78 | LLWLL | +0.24 | -0.09 | 2% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Atlanta Fire United | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 | 0.44 | LLLLL | +0.01 | +0.25 | 0% | 8.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 at Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.