WNY Flash
ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU14 · 8 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.5 for, 1.8 against · 1.79 expected points)
| Season so far | WNY Flash | GTFC Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-4 | 0-0-5 |
| Points per game | 0.71 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.1 | 3.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D L L | L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs Internationals SC | 1–7 vs Ohio Elite SA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.51 | -0.97 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.25 | +0.98 |
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
GTFC Impact concede 3.8/game; worst result 1–7 vs Ohio Elite SA.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 19% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
Confidence is low on their side
GTFC Impact have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the GTFC Impact game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash – GTFC Impact) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 0.75 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.63 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 6th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 3%
- 5th 16%
- 6th 63%
- 7th 16%
- 8th 2%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Premier | 3.00 (+2.29) | 1st (2.15) | 61 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection |
| 2 | Internationals SC | 2.20 (+1.49) | 3rd (2.05) | 44 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 3 | NWI Lions United | 2.17 (+1.46) | 2nd (2.07) | 43 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 1.33 (+0.62) | 4th (1.44) | 25 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 5 | Cleveland Force SC | 1.20 (+0.49) | 5th (1.37) | 22 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
Position over the season
5 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 4th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:45 AM |
GTFC Impact 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -12 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.79 | 0.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM |
Ohio Premier 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9 |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 0.83 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 10:45 AM |
Mercury |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 0.87 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 10:45 AM |
Lexington Sporting Club Academy |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 0.90 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
GTFC Impact 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 0.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Ohio Premier 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.46 | 0.91 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Indy Eleven |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 0.93 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 10:30 AM |
FC Pride Elite |
Home Flash Fields |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.21 | 0.95 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -19 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.01 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
NWI Lions United 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.48 | 0.98 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.14 | 0.99 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -19 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.05 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
NWI Lions United 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.68 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 10:45 AM |
Cleveland Force SC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Away far trip
Victory Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.98 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Internationals SC 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–2 | 0.54 | 1.01 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Premier | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.97 | -0.10 | 99% | 1.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash · Sat Oct 31 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Internationals SC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 11 | 2.20 | DDWWW | -0.21 | -0.08 | 99% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NWI Lions United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 13 | 2.17 | DWWW | +0.33 | -0.22 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 8 | 1.33 | LWD | +0.04 | -0.06 | 56% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Oct 31 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cleveland Force SC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | WLWLL | -0.03 | -0.01 | 43% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sat Nov 7 vs Indiana Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | WNY Flash | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 5 | 0.71 | LLD | +0.25 | -0.02 | 3% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Mercury See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Indiana Elite FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 21 | -19 | 1 | 0.17 | LDLL | +0.34 | +0.12 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at NWI Lions United · Sun Oct 25 vs NWI Lions United · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GTFC Impact | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.98 | +0.03 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 31 vs Internationals SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.