Ohio Premier

ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU14 · 8 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)

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1st

3-0-0 record · 3 played

3.00 points per game

+9 goal diff · 12–3

WWWlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9

-0.97 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Ohio Premier
1st · 3.00 PPG

Pittsburgh Riverhounds
4th · 1.33 PPG

Montour Junction Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

49% 24% 27%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.2 against · 1.70 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Premier	Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-0	2-2-2
Points per game	3.00	1.33
Goals for / game	4.0	1.2
Goals against / game	1.0	0.8
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W	D W L
Biggest win	5–1 vs Ohio Elite SA	1–0 vs Cleveland Force SC
Worst loss	—	0–1 vs Internationals SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.98	+0.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.97	+0.04

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 49% / draw 24% / loss 27%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Montour Junction Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pittsburgh Riverhounds game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier – Pittsburgh Riverhounds) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.25 PPG	1st— holds	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

44% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.9 average finish

1st 44%
2nd 28%
3rd 24%
4th 3%
5th <1%
6th <1%
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

Position over the season

5 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 10:30 AM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	1–1	1.70	2.67	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 10:45 AM	WNY Flash 6th · 1-2-4 · GD -6	Away far trip Flash Fields	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.58	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	Cleveland Force SC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1	Home OP Training Facility	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	2.51	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 12:45 PM	Internationals SC 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +6	Home OP Training Facility	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.40	2.35	Upside
Sat Mar 6 TBD	NWI Lions United 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–2	1.26	2.21	Upside
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -19	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	3–0	2.63	2.26	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 TBD	GTFC Impact 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -12	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	3–1	2.41	2.28	Bank it
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–1	1.94	2.24	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 TBD	WNY Flash 6th · 1-2-4 · GD -6	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	3–1	2.41	2.26	Bank it
Sat Apr 10 02:15 PM	Internationals SC 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +6	Away far trip Pinnacle Sports	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.17	2.17	Upside
Sun Apr 11 05:45 PM	Cleveland Force SC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1	Away far trip Victory Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.90	2.16	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	NWI Lions United 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +11	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	2–1	1.56	2.12	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -19	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	3–0	2.76	2.16	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	Racing Louisville Academy	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.15	Swing game
Sun May 16 TBD	Tennessee SC	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.15	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Premier

3.00

WWW

-0.97

-0.10

100%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash · Sat Oct 31 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	2–1	64%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC

2.20

DDWWW

-0.21

-0.08

99%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	WNY Flash (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun May 16	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NWI Lions United

+11

2.17

DWWW

+0.33

-0.22

100%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury (—)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.33

LWD

+0.04

-0.06

55%

4.5

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Oct 31 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat May 15	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun May 16	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Mercury (—)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

-1

1.20

WLWLL

-0.03

-0.01

43%

4.6

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sat Nov 7 vs Indiana Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat May 15	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-6

0.71

LLD

+0.25

-0.02

6.0

D	Sat Oct 3	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Mercury See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mercury (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun May 2	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 15	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun May 16	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indiana Elite FC

-19

0.17

LDLL

+0.34

+0.12

7.7

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury (—)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 3 at NWI Lions United · Sun Oct 25 vs NWI Lions United · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat May 1	at	WNY Flash (6th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact

-12

0.00

LLL

+0.98

+0.03

7.0

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 31 vs Internationals SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–2	26%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.