NWI Lions United

ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU14 · 8 teams · NWI Lions United (all teams)

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3rd

4-1-1 record · 6 played

2.17 points per game

+11 goal diff · 18–7

DWWWlast 4

99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.1

+0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:30 PM

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NWI Lions United
3rd · 2.17 PPG

Indiana Elite FC
7th · 0.17 PPG

Elite Sports Complex , Field 2 ↗

84% 11%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 0.8 against · 2.61 expected points)

Season so far	NWI Lions United	Indiana Elite FC
Position	3rd	7th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-1	0-1-5
Points per game	2.17	0.17
Goals for / game	3.0	0.3
Goals against / game	1.2	3.5
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W D	L L D L
Biggest win	4–0 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy	—
Worst loss	—	0–5 vs Cleveland Force SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.93	-1.48
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.33	+0.34

Common opponents: Internationals SC — we 1–1; they 0–0. Cleveland Force SC — we 4–1; they 0–5. Lexington Sporting Club Academy — we 4–0; they 0–1. Mercury — we 3–1; they 1–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Indiana Elite FC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.6); blanked in 3 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Indiana Elite FC concede 3.5/game; worst result 0–5 vs Cleveland Force SC.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 84% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 04:30 PM at Elite Sports Complex .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Internationals SC sit 2nd on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.17.
A point moves us above Internationals SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Indiana Elite FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NWI Lions United – Indiana Elite FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.29 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Win 2.29 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.86 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

27% finish 1st

99% top 4

1% below the top 4

2.1 average finish

1st 27%
2nd 35%
3rd 33%
4th 3%
5th 1%
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Premier	3.00 (+0.83)	1st (2.15)	47 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2	Internationals SC	2.20 (+0.03)	3rd (2.05)	A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link NWI Lions United to Indiana Elite FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

2 even

0 favour them

+4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 8th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 TBD no score posted	Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -19	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	3–0	2.74	2.25	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 04:30 PM	Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -19	Away Elite Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	84%	3–0	2.61	2.29	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Cleveland Force SC 5th · 2-0-3 · GD -1	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	2–1	1.88	2.25	Swing game
Sat Dec 12 11:15 AM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +2	Away far trip Montour Junction Sports Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	2.19	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Ohio Premier 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	44%	2–1	1.54	2.13	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	GTFC Impact 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -12	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	83%	3–1	2.59	2.17	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 03:45 PM	Internationals SC 2nd · 3-2-0 · GD +6	Away far trip Pinnacle Sports	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.16	2.09	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	FC Pride Elite	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.08	2.09	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 TBD	Indy Eleven	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.08	2.09	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 4th · 2-2-2 · GD +2	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	1–1	1.92	2.08	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	WNY Flash 6th · 1-2-4 · GD -6	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	3–1	2.39	2.10	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Ohio Premier 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +9	Away	●●●●○ Tough	34%	1–2	1.24	2.05	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	GTFC Impact 8th · 0-0-5 · GD -12	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	75%	3–1	2.39	2.07	Bank it
Sun May 2 TBD	WNY Flash 6th · 1-2-4 · GD -6	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.15	2.07	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Premier

3.00

WWW

-0.97

-0.10

99%

1.9

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash · Sat Oct 31 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	84%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	3–1	76%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	2–1	64%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC

2.20

DDWWW

-0.21

-0.08

99%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	WNY Flash (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–0	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–0	59%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun May 16	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NWI Lions United

+11

2.17

DWWW

+0.33

-0.22

99%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury (—)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	4–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	2–1	56%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	2–1	44%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	56%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

1.33

LWD

+0.04

-0.06

55%

4.4

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Oct 31 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–0	71%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–1	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash (6th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat May 15	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun May 16	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Mercury (—)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

-1

1.20

WLWLL

-0.03

-0.01

44%

4.6

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sat Nov 7 vs Indiana Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–1	22%
·	Sat May 15	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-6

0.71

LLD

+0.25

-0.02

6.0

D	Sat Oct 3	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Mercury See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mercury (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	2–2	43%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	30%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun May 2	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 15	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun May 16	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indiana Elite FC

-19

0.17

LDLL

+0.34

+0.12

7.8

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury (—)	1–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 3 at NWI Lions United · Sun Oct 25 vs NWI Lions United · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	0–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	0–1	14%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	GTFC Impact (8th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat May 1	at	WNY Flash (6th)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact

-12

0.00

LLL

+0.98

+0.03

7.0

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–7

Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 31 vs Internationals SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash (6th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Ohio Premier (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	WNY Flash (6th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Cleveland Force SC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Internationals SC (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NWI Lions United (3rd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–2	26%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–2	26%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.59 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.