Ohio Premier
ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU13 · 8 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Montour Junction Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.3 for, 1.9 against · 0.99 expected points)
| Season so far | Ohio Premier | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-0 | 4-1-1 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D D W | W W L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Ohio Galaxies FC | 6–1 vs WNY Flash |
| Worst loss | — | 1–2 vs Internationals SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.16 | +0.70 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.02 | -0.35 |
Game plan
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Montour Junction Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Pittsburgh Riverhounds game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier – Pittsburgh Riverhounds) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 2%
- 2nd 13%
- 3rd 42%
- 4th 25%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 3%
- 7th <1%
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.78 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internationals SC | 3.00 (+1.33) | 1st (2.41) | 49 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection |
| 2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2.17 (+0.50) | 2nd (1.98) | 35 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection |
Position over the season
5 game days
Not enough game days yet to draw a line.
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.20 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
Montour Junction Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 0.99 | 1.50 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM |
WNY Flash 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -21 |
Away far trip
Flash Fields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
2–0 | 2.23 | 1.64 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 12:00 PM |
Cleveland Force SC 6th · 0-2-3 · GD -5 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–0 | 1.89 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Internationals SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +10 |
Home OP Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–1 | 1.00 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
NWI Lions United 5th · 2-0-4 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
1–1 | 1.29 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -22 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
GTFC Impact 4th · 1-3-1 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.24 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
WNY Flash 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -21 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 76% |
2–0 | 2.43 | 1.62 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
Internationals SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Pinnacle Sports |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.77 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 04:00 PM |
Cleveland Force SC 6th · 0-2-3 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Victory Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
1–1 | 1.67 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
NWI Lions United 5th · 2-0-4 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -22 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–1 | 2.27 | 1.60 | Bank it |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Racing Louisville Academy |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Tennessee SC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.62 | 1.61 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Internationals SC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.54 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | LWW | -0.35 | -0.20 | 98% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Oct 31 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Ohio Premier | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 1.67 | WDD | +0.02 | -0.20 | 82% | 3.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash · Sat Oct 31 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | GTFC Impact | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LDD | +0.16 | -0.19 | 61% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 31 vs Internationals SC See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | NWI Lions United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLL | +0.34 | -0.25 | 53% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Cleveland Force SC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | 0.40 | DLDLL | -0.17 | -0.05 | 5% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sat Nov 7 vs Indiana Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Indiana Elite FC | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 28 | -22 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLL | +0.34 | -0.05 | 0% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 3 at NWI Lions United · Sun Oct 25 vs NWI Lions United · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | WNY Flash | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 26 | -21 | 1 | 0.14 | DLL | +0.47 | -0.05 | 0% | 7.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Mercury See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.