GTFC Impact

ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU13 · 8 teams · GTFC Impact (all teams)

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4th

1-3-1 record · 5 played

1.20 points per game

+0 goal diff · 5–5

LDDlast 3

60% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2

+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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GTFC Impact
4th · 1.20 PPG

WNY Flash
8th · 0.14 PPG

Flash Fields, Field B ↗ far trip

65% 20% 16%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.1 for, 0.9 against · 2.14 expected points)

Season so far	GTFC Impact	WNY Flash
Position	4th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	1-3-1	0-1-6
Points per game	1.20	0.14
Goals for / game	1.0	0.7
Goals against / game	1.0	3.7
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	D D L	L L D
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	0–2 vs Ohio Elite SA	1–6 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.02	-1.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.16	+0.47

Game plan

They struggle to score
WNY Flash average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 7.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
WNY Flash concede 3.7/game; worst result 1–6 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–2 vs Ohio Elite SA, 0–0 vs Ohio Galaxies FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 65% / draw 20% / loss 16%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Flash Fields.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (GTFC Impact – WNY Flash) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.50 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.17 PPG	4th— holds	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1	5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

60% top 4

40% below the top 4

4.2 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 5%
3rd 21%
4th 34%
5th 33%
6th 7%
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.55 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Internationals SC	3.00 (+1.80)	1st (2.41)	54 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	2.17 (+0.97)	2nd (1.98)	38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3	Ohio Premier	1.67 (+0.47)	3rd (1.61)	28 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

Position over the season

5 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.19 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	WNY Flash 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -21	Away far trip Flash Fields	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–0	2.14	1.36	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +7	Away	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–1	0.91	1.29	Upside
Sat Oct 31 02:00 PM	Internationals SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +10	Home Rossford Soccer Center Dome	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.92	1.25	Upside
Sun Nov 1 02:30 PM	Cleveland Force SC 6th · 0-2-3 · GD -5	Home Findlay High School · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	1–0	1.80	1.31	Swing game
Sat Mar 6 TBD	Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -22	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.92	1.37	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	NWI Lions United 5th · 2-0-4 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	31%	1–1	1.20	1.35	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	Ohio Premier 3rd · 1-2-0 · GD +2	Home	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.39	1.36	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	WNY Flash 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -21	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–0	2.34	1.43	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +7	Home	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.14	1.41	Upside
Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM	Cleveland Force SC 6th · 0-2-3 · GD -5	Away far trip Victory Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	43%	1–1	1.58	1.42	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 12:30 PM	Internationals SC 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +10	Away far trip Pinnacle Sports	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–2	0.70	1.38	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Indiana Elite FC 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -22	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	1.42	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	NWI Lions United 5th · 2-0-4 · GD +0	Home	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.44	1.42	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Tennessee SC	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	1–1	1.51	1.43	Swing game
Sun May 16 TBD	Racing Louisville Academy	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	42%	1–1	1.51	1.43	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Internationals SC

+10

3.00

WWWWW

-0.54

-0.18

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	WNY Flash (8th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	5–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	NWI Lions United (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 1 at Ohio Premier · Sat Mar 6 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	GTFC Impact (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	NWI Lions United (5th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	2–1	68%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Premier (3rd)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	GTFC Impact (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	68%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	2–1	54%
·	Sun May 16	vs	WNY Flash (8th)	4–0	92%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds

2.17

LWW

-0.35

-0.20

99%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash (8th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact · Sat Oct 31 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–1	55%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Dec 12	vs	NWI Lions United (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash (8th)	3–0	81%
·	Sat May 15	at	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun May 16	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Mercury (—)	2–1	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier

1.67

WDD

+0.02

-0.20

82%

3.5

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sun Oct 25 at WNY Flash · Sat Oct 31 vs Cleveland Force SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	WNY Flash (8th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–0	55%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Internationals SC (1st)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	WNY Flash (8th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–1	46%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact

1.20

LDD

+0.16

-0.19

60%

4.2

D	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds · Sat Oct 31 vs Internationals SC See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash (8th)	2–0	65%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–0	51%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	WNY Flash (8th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–1	42%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–1	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NWI Lions United

1.00

LWLL

+0.34

-0.25

54%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury (—)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Indiana Elite FC · Sun Oct 25 at Indiana Elite FC · Sun Nov 8 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Dec 12	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	WNY Flash (8th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	WNY Flash (8th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force SC

-5

0.40

DLDLL

-0.17

-0.05

6.1

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Internationals SC (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–2
D	Sat Sep 26	at	WNY Flash (8th)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 1 at GTFC Impact · Sat Nov 7 vs Indiana Elite FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Ohio Premier (3rd)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	GTFC Impact (4th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Tennessee SC (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Ohio Elite SA (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (—)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Internationals SC (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 15	vs	WNY Flash (8th)	1–0	60%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–2	20%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indiana Elite FC

-22

0.17

DLLL

+0.34

-0.05

7.1

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury (—)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Internationals SC (1st)	3–5
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 at NWI Lions United · Sun Oct 25 vs NWI Lions United · Sat Nov 7 at Cleveland Force SC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Internationals SC (1st)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	WNY Flash (8th)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	GTFC Impact (4th)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Ohio Premier (3rd)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 1	at	WNY Flash (8th)	2–1	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash

-21

0.14

DLL

+0.47

-0.05

7.6

L	Sat Oct 3	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Internationals SC (1st)	0–4
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Oct 25 vs Ohio Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs Mercury See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact (4th)	0–2	16%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Ohio Premier (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Mercury (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	GTFC Impact (4th)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Ohio Premier (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Indy Eleven (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Pride Elite (—)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NWI Lions United (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (2nd)	0–3	8%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Indiana Elite FC (7th)	1–2	33%
·	Sun May 2	vs	NWI Lions United (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 15	at	Cleveland Force SC (6th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun May 16	at	Internationals SC (1st)	0–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.