Vale Rush United
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU15 · 6 teams · Vale Rush United (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 21, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Vale Rush United | Scorpions SC South |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Scorpions SC South average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Select Northeast sit 5th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Select Northeast on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Scorpions SC South game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Vale Rush United – Scorpions SC South) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 5 | 1st▲ up 5 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 4 | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 16%
- 2nd 16%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 17%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 17%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Connecticut | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Connecticut FC Legacy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | FC Stars New Hampshire | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Scorpions SC South | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Select Northeast | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 6th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Scorpions SC South 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Select Northeast 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
FC Stars New Hampshire 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
AC Connecticut 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Connecticut FC Legacy 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
FC Stars New Hampshire 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Select Northeast 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
AC Connecticut 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 TBD |
Connecticut FC Legacy 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
Scorpions SC South 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | AC Connecticut | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Connecticut FC Legacy · Sat Apr 3 vs Select Northeast · Sun Apr 4 vs FC Stars New Hampshire See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Connecticut FC Legacy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 at AC Connecticut · Sat Apr 3 vs FC Stars New Hampshire · Sun Apr 4 vs Select Northeast See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Stars New Hampshire | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 at Select Northeast · Sat Apr 3 at Connecticut FC Legacy · Sun Apr 4 at AC Connecticut See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Scorpions SC South | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 at Vale Rush United · Sat Apr 10 vs FC Stars New Hampshire · Sun Apr 11 vs Select Northeast See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Select Northeast | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 vs FC Stars New Hampshire · Sat Apr 3 at AC Connecticut · Sun Apr 4 at Connecticut FC Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Vale Rush United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Scorpions SC South · Sat Apr 10 vs Select Northeast · Sun Apr 11 vs FC Stars New Hampshire See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.