West-Mont United
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 6 teams · West-Mont United S.A (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:15 PM
Smith Estates, Turf ↗ · turf far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.6 against · 0.54 expected points)
| Season so far | West-Mont United | Delaware FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-2-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.25 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 0.8 | 4.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | D W | W L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs FC Copa Academy | 8–1 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE |
| Worst loss | — | 1–3 vs Match Fit Surf White |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.29 | +1.43 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Delaware FC score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.1.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs NLSA Surf.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 13%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:15 PM at Smith Estates.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
PA Rush sit 3rd on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.25.A point moves us above PA Rush on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Delaware FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West-Mont United – Delaware FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.60 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.20 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 6th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 26%
- 4th 39%
- 5th 30%
- 6th 4%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Fit Surf Blue | 2.25 (+1.00) | 1st (2.25) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
| 2 | Delaware FC | 2.25 (+1.00) | 2nd (2.15) | 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | PA Rush | 1.40 (+0.15) | 3rd (1.38) | A point next game |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 01:15 PM |
Delaware FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Smith Estates · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.54 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 03:00 PM |
Lancaster FC 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -15 |
Home The Far Post · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.16 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
PSA Monmouth |
Home The Far Post · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
FC Europa 5th · 0-3-1 · GD -2 |
Away The Proving Grounds |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.23 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Lancaster FC 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -15 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Delaware FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
PA Rush 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.31 | 1.29 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Blue 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
0–2 | 0.65 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 11:00 AM |
PA Rush 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Quakertown High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–1 | 1.08 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Blue 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 10% |
0–2 | 0.48 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
FC Europa 5th · 0-3-1 · GD -2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.45 | 1.19 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Match Fit Surf Blue | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | WW | +0.00 | -0.23 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Delaware FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | LW | +0.00 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Oct 31 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West-Mont United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PA Rush | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | LD | +0.00 | +0.05 | 87% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Nov 1 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Mar 6 at Lancaster FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | West-Mont United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 | 1.25 | WD | +0.00 | +0.10 | 66% | 4.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Delaware FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 8 vs PSA Monmouth See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Europa | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 | 0.75 | LD | +0.00 | +0.10 | 45% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Copa Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lancaster FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 3 | 0.75 | LL | +0.00 | +0.44 | 2% | 5.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Oct 31 at Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.08 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.