FC Europa
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU14 · 6 teams · FC Europa (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM
Foundation Field at Overlook, field 4 ↗ far trip
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.35 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Europa | Lancaster FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-3-1 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.2 | 6.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D L | L L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs FC Copa Academy | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 vs NLSA Surf | 0–10 vs WNY Flash Binghamton |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | -2.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
Lancaster FC concede 6.0/game; worst result 0–10 vs WNY Flash Binghamton.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 74% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Foundation Field at Overlook.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
West-Mont United sit 4th on 1.25 PPG; we are on 1.20.A point moves us above West-Mont United on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lancaster FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Europa – Lancaster FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
5th— holds | 3rd▲ up 2 | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 4th▲ up 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 6%
- 3rd 28%
- 4th 36%
- 5th 29%
- 6th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Delaware FC | 2.25 (+1.05) | 1st (2.20) | 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | Match Fit Surf Blue | 1.80 (+0.60) | 2nd (1.91) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | PA Rush | 1.40 (+0.20) | 3rd (1.42) | A point next game |
| 4 | West-Mont United | 1.25 (+0.05) | 5th (1.23) | A point next game |
The path
run-in difficulty -0.15 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM |
Lancaster FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Foundation Field at Overlook |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.35 | 1.39 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 01:30 PM |
Match Fit Surf Blue 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +8 |
Away far trip
Harrison HS |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 11:00 AM |
West-Mont United 4th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
1–0 | 1.62 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Lancaster FC 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -23 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.56 | 1.49 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 11:30 AM |
Delaware FC 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Away far trip
Odyssey Charter School · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–2 | 0.68 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:30 AM |
Match Fit Surf Blue 2nd · 3-0-2 · GD +8 |
Home YSC Sports |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–2 | 1.10 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 11:00 AM |
PA Rush 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 02:30 PM |
Delaware FC 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +10 |
Home YSC Sports |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–2 | 0.91 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sun May 16 11:00 AM |
PA Rush 3rd · 2-1-2 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Quakertown High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
1–1 | 1.25 | 1.34 | Upside |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
West-Mont United 4th · 1-2-1 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.35 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Delaware FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 6 | +10 | 9 | 2.25 | LW | +0.00 | -0.39 | 100% | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Oct 31 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West-Mont United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Match Fit Surf Blue | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 9 | 1.80 | WW | +0.00 | -0.31 | 99% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | PA Rush | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 7 | 1.40 | LD | +0.00 | -0.13 | 79% | 3.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Nov 1 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Mar 6 at Lancaster FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | West-Mont United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 | 1.25 | WD | +0.00 | -0.08 | 51% | 4.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Delaware FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 8 vs PSA Monmouth See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | FC Europa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 6 | 1.20 | LDW | +0.00 | -0.15 | 71% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Apr 3 vs West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lancaster FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 3 | 0.60 | LL | +0.00 | +0.39 | 0% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Oct 31 at Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.