Keystone Athletic
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 8 teams · Keystone Athletic (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:15 AM
Charles Chrin Community Center, Field 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.0 against · 2.63 expected points)
| Season so far | Keystone Athletic | New England Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 7th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-2 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 4.4 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | D L W L | L W L L L |
| Biggest win | 5–0 vs YMS | 1–0 vs YMS |
| Worst loss | 1–4 vs Reading Rage Surf | 0–6 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.12 | -2.20 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.16 | +0.48 |
Common opponents: YMS — we 5–0; they 1–0. Quickstrike FC — we 2–3; they 0–5. East Coast Surf -RL — we 0–0; they 1–6.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
New England Surf average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.9); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
New England Surf concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–6 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs East Coast Surf -RL.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 85% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the New England Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Keystone Athletic – New England Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.40 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 34%
- 6th 38%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PDA SOUTH BLUE | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.44) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | East Coast Surf -RL | 2.50 (+1.50) | 2nd (2.23) | 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 3 | Albany Alleycats | 1.80 (+0.80) | 4th (1.62) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 4 | Quickstrike FC | 1.75 (+0.75) | 3rd (1.64) | 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
How the results connect
11 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Keystone Athletic to New England Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.02 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 10:15 AM |
New England Surf 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -19 |
Home Charles Chrin Community Center |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–1 | 2.63 | 1.33 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:15 AM |
Albany Alleycats 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2 |
Home Nazareth Middle School Turf · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 42% |
1–1 | 1.46 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:45 AM |
PDA SOUTH BLUE 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Westampton Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
0–2 | 0.48 | 1.22 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Reading Rage Surf 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.41 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM |
YMS 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -11 |
Away far trip
Macclesfield Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.14 | 1.35 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
PDA SOUTH BLUE 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–2 | 0.66 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Quickstrike FC 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +5 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 27% |
1–2 | 1.01 | 1.25 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
East Coast Surf -RL 2nd · 3-1-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.57 | 1.20 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
New England Surf 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -19 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.29 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Albany Alleycats 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 1.29 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | PDA SOUTH BLUE | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.87 | +0.07 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf -RL · Sat Nov 7 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | East Coast Surf -RL | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 10 | 2.50 | WWWD | -0.46 | -0.03 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs YMS · Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Nov 1 at Quickstrike FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Albany Alleycats | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | +0.03 | +0.00 | 74% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Mar 21 vs New England Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Quickstrike FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 | 1.75 | LWWD | -0.46 | +0.14 | 79% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs YMS · Sun Nov 1 vs East Coast Surf -RL See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Keystone Athletic | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 | 1.00 | LWLD | +0.16 | -0.02 | 26% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs New England Surf · Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats · Sat Nov 7 at PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Reading Rage Surf | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 5 | 1.00 | WLDLD | +0.51 | -0.18 | 21% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Alleycats · Sun Oct 25 vs New England Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | New England Surf | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 22 | -19 | 3 | 0.60 | LLLWL | +0.48 | +0.27 | 0% | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Oct 25 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Mar 21 at Albany Alleycats See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | YMS | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 1 | 0.20 | LDLLL | -0.14 | +0.39 | 0% | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf -RL · Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Mar 21 at PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.87 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.