East Coast Surf -RL

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 8 teams · East Coast Surf (all teams)

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2nd

3-1-0 record · 4 played

2.50 points per game

+11 goal diff · 13–2

WWWDlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8

-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 05:00 PM

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East Coast Surf -RL
2nd · 2.50 PPG

YMS
8th · 0.20 PPG

Point Lookout - Lido Blvd, Field 1 ↗

90%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.6 for, 0.6 against · 2.76 expected points)

Season so far	East Coast Surf -RL	YMS
Position	2nd	8th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-0	0-1-4
Points per game	2.50	0.20
Goals for / game	3.3	0.6
Goals against / game	0.5	2.8
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	1	4
Form (recent first)	D W W W	L L L D L
Biggest win	6–1 vs New England Surf	—
Worst loss	—	0–5 at Keystone Athletic
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.39	-1.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.42	-0.11

Common opponents: New England Surf — we 6–1; they 0–1. Albany Alleycats — we 3–0; they 0–1. Reading Rage Surf — we 4–1; they 3–3. Keystone Athletic — we 0–0; they 0–5.

Game plan

They struggle to score
YMS average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
YMS concede 2.8/game; worst result 0–5 at Keystone Athletic.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Keystone Athletic.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
YMS have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the YMS game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Coast Surf -RL – YMS) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.60 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.60 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.20 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	4th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

30% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.8 average finish

1st 30%
2nd 58%
3rd 9%
4th 2%
5th <1%
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	PDA SOUTH BLUE	3.00 (+0.50)	1st (2.43)	32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link East Coast Surf -RL to YMS through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

12 favour us

1 favour them

+4.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 05:00 PM	YMS 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -11	Home Point Lookout - Lido Blvd	●○○○○ Favorable	90%	3–0	2.76	2.55	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	PDA SOUTH BLUE 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13	Home Cantiague Park	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.35	2.35	Upside
Sun Nov 1 02:30 PM	Quickstrike FC 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Away far trip Pace University · turf?	●●●○○ Toss-up	54%	2–1	1.82	2.28	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Quickstrike FC 4th · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.08	2.25	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	New England Surf 7th · 1-0-5 · GD -21	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	4–0	2.83	2.32	Bank it
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Albany Alleycats 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +2	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.96	2.28	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Reading Rage Surf 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -2	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	2–1	2.41	2.29	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Keystone Athletic 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +3	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.18	2.28	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 12:30 PM	YMS 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -11	Away far trip Macclesfield Park · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	3–0	2.64	2.31	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 09:00 AM	PDA SOUTH BLUE 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13	Away far trip Westampton Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.11	2.22	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

PDA SOUTH BLUE

+13

3.00

WWWW

-0.86

+0.09

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	New England Surf (7th)	6–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	YMS (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf -RL · Sat Nov 7 vs Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Quickstrike FC (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Keystone Athletic (5th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	YMS (8th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	2–1	72%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Keystone Athletic (5th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	New England Surf (7th)	4–0	97%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Quickstrike FC (4th)	2–1	68%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Coast Surf -RL

+11

2.50

WWWD

-0.42

-0.01

100%

1.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Keystone Athletic (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	New England Surf (7th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs YMS · Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Nov 1 at Quickstrike FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	YMS (8th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Quickstrike FC (4th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Quickstrike FC (4th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	New England Surf (7th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	2–1	76%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Keystone Athletic (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	YMS (8th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albany Alleycats

1.80

WWLLW

+0.04

+0.03

71%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	YMS (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Quickstrike FC (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	New England Surf (7th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Mar 21 vs New England Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keystone Athletic (5th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	New England Surf (7th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Quickstrike FC (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	YMS (8th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Keystone Athletic (5th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Quickstrike FC

1.75

LWWD

-0.42

+0.15

78%

3.8

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Keystone Athletic (5th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	New England Surf (7th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Oct 25 vs YMS · Sun Nov 1 vs East Coast Surf -RL See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	YMS (8th)	3–0	81%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	New England Surf (7th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic (5th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	YMS (8th)	2–1	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic

1.40

LWLDW

-0.34

+0.22

32%

4.9

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	New England Surf (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Quickstrike FC (4th)	2–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	YMS (8th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Albany Alleycats · Sat Nov 7 at PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Mar 21 at Reading Rage Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	YMS (8th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Quickstrike FC (4th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	New England Surf (7th)	2–0	79%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	1–1	34%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Reading Rage Surf

-2

1.00

WLDLD

+0.52

-0.15

20%

5.3

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Quickstrike FC (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–4
D	Sun Sep 20	at	YMS (8th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Keystone Athletic (5th)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albany Alleycats · Sun Oct 25 vs New England Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs Keystone Athletic See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	New England Surf (7th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Keystone Athletic (5th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	YMS (8th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Quickstrike FC (4th)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	New England Surf (7th)	3–1	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

New England Surf

-21

0.50

LLWLL

+0.43

+0.30

7.6

L	Sat Oct 24	at	Keystone Athletic (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	YMS (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Quickstrike FC (4th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	1–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Mar 21 at Albany Alleycats · Sat Apr 10 vs East Coast Surf -RL See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	1–3	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Quickstrike FC (4th)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS (8th)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Keystone Athletic (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	1–3	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS

-11

0.20

LDLLL

-0.11

+0.41

7.4

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	New England Surf (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Keystone Athletic (5th)	0–5
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf -RL · Sun Oct 25 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Mar 21 at PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Quickstrike FC (4th)	0–3	7%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Keystone Athletic (5th)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Reading Rage Surf (6th)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	New England Surf (7th)	1–1	54%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Albany Alleycats (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Coast Surf -RL (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Quickstrike FC (4th)	1–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.