PSA Monmouth

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 6 teams · Princeton SA (all teams)

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1st

4-0-1 record · 5 played

2.40 points per game

+9 goal diff · 14–5

WWWlast 3

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 20, TBD

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PSA Monmouth
1st · 2.40 PPG

PDA SOUTH WHITE
6th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

95%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.7 for, 0.6 against · 2.89 expected points)

Season so far	PSA Monmouth	PDA SOUTH WHITE
Position	1st	6th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-1	0-0-4
Points per game	2.40	0.00
Goals for / game	2.8	0.3
Goals against / game	1.0	4.3
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W	L L
Biggest win	6–0 vs PA Rush	—
Worst loss	—	1–5 vs West-Mont United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.12	-2.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
PDA SOUTH WHITE average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 1 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
PDA SOUTH WHITE concede 4.2/game; worst result 1–5 vs West-Mont United.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 4–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the PDA SOUTH WHITE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PSA Monmouth – PDA SOUTH WHITE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.17 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

77% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 77%
2nd 19%
3rd 3%
4th <1%
5th <1%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.43 · 6th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Mar 20 TBD	PDA SOUTH WHITE 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -16	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	4–0	2.89	2.48	Bank it
Sun Mar 21 TBD	WNY Flash Binghamton 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +4	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	2.35	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM	PDA SOUTH WHITE 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -16	Away far trip Westampton Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	4–0	2.81	2.41	Bank it
Sun Apr 18 TBD	NLSA Surf 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -3	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	2–1	2.14	2.38	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Match Fit Surf White 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.73	2.32	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	WNY Flash Binghamton 5th · 2-1-2 · GD +4	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.86	2.27	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	FC Copa Academy 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD -6	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	3–1	2.31	2.28	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	Match Fit Surf White 2nd · 2-1-1 · GD +5	Away	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.46	2.21	Upside
Sun May 16 TBD	FC Copa Academy 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD -6	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.54	2.24	Bank it
Sat May 22 TBD	NLSA Surf 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -3	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–0	2.35	2.24	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

PSA Monmouth

2.40

WWW

+0.00

-0.43

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lancaster FC (—)	3–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Delaware FC (—)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	PA Rush (—)	6–0

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Apr 17 at PDA SOUTH WHITE See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	3–1	73%
·	Sat May 15	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	3–1	81%
·	Sat May 22	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf White

1.75

+0.00

-0.32

98%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Match Fit Surf Blue (—)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Europa (—)	0–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs West-Mont United · Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	West-Mont United (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	2–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat May 1	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	3–1	73%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Copa Academy

-6

1.67

LDW

+0.00

-0.07

61%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lancaster FC (—)	5–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	PA Rush (—)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Delaware FC (—)	1–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sun Apr 11 at NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–3	16%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–3	14%
·	Sun May 2	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 15	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun May 16	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NLSA Surf

-3

1.50

+0.00

-0.11

47%

4.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	PA Rush (—)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lancaster FC (—)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Dec 5 vs Delaware FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Delaware FC (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat May 22	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	0–2	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Binghamton

1.40

DLW

+0.00

-0.31

94%

3.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Match Fit Surf Blue (—)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Europa (—)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	West-Mont United (—)	1–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FC Copa Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs PSA Monmouth See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 2	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SOUTH WHITE

-16

0.00

+0.00

+0.23

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	West-Mont United (—)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Match Fit Surf Blue (—)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Europa · Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Europa (—)	0–3	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Copa Academy (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 22	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.79 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.