Match Fit Surf White

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 6 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)

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3rd

2-1-1 record · 4 played

1.75 points per game

+5 goal diff · 9–4

DWlast 2

97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.3

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM

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Match Fit Surf White
3rd · 1.75 PPG

NLSA Surf
4th · 1.50 PPG

Mercer County Community College, Stadium Turf ↗ · turf

57% 22% 21%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.1 against · 1.94 expected points)

Season so far	Match Fit Surf White	NLSA Surf
Position	3rd	4th
Record (W-D-L)	2-1-1	2-0-2
Points per game	1.75	1.50
Goals for / game	2.3	1.0
Goals against / game	1.0	1.8
Clean sheets	2	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W D	W W
Biggest win	6–0 vs Match Fit Surf Blue	3–2 vs Lancaster FC
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.71	-0.43
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs FC Europa.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 57% / draw 22% / loss 21%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at Mercer County Community College.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
FC Copa Academy sit 2nd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.75.
A win moves us above FC Copa Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the NLSA Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf White – NLSA Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.60 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Draw 1.60 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.40 PPG	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

22% finish 1st

97% top 4

3% below the top 4

2.3 average finish

1st 22%
2nd 42%
3rd 22%
4th 11%
5th 3%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	PSA Monmouth	2.25 (+0.50)	1st (2.11)	27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
2	FC Copa Academy	2.00 (+0.25)	3rd (1.62)	Win next game

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	NLSA Surf 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -3	Away Mercer County Community College · turf	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	1–1	1.94	1.79	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 09:00 AM	West-Mont United	Home Monmouth Regional High School	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	2–1	1.96	1.82	Swing game
Sun Apr 4 TBD	FC Copa Academy 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +0	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	2–1	1.75	1.81	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 12:00 PM	PDA SOUTH WHITE 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -16	Away far trip Westampton Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	3–0	2.71	1.92	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	NLSA Surf 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -3	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–0	2.16	1.95	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	WNY Flash Binghamton 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +3	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.65	1.92	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	PSA Monmouth 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +7	Away	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–1	1.12	1.84	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	PDA SOUTH WHITE 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -16	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	3–0	2.81	1.93	Bank it
Sat May 1 TBD	WNY Flash Binghamton 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +3	Away	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.40	1.88	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	FC Copa Academy 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +0	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	62%	2–1	2.04	1.90	Swing game
Sat May 15 TBD	PSA Monmouth 1st · 3-0-1 · GD +7	Home	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.38	1.86	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

PSA Monmouth

2.25

+0.00

-0.29

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Delaware FC (—)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	PA Rush (—)	6–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lancaster FC (—)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–1	58%
·	Sat May 15	at	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	3–1	68%
·	Sat May 22	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Copa Academy

2.00

LDW

+0.00

-0.11

89%

3.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lancaster FC (—)	5–1
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	PA Rush (—)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Delaware FC (—)	1–7

Next: Sun Nov 1 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sun Apr 11 at NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–1	45%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–2	34%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	4–1	89%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–2	24%
·	Sun May 2	at	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 15	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–1	82%
·	Sun May 16	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–3	17%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf White

1.75

+0.00

-0.23

97%

2.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Match Fit Surf Blue (—)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Europa (—)	0–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs West-Mont United · Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	1–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	West-Mont United (—)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	2–0	66%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	92%
·	Sat May 1	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NLSA Surf

-3

1.50

+0.00

-0.03

34%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	PA Rush (—)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lancaster FC (—)	3–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Dec 5 vs Delaware FC · Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	1–1	21%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Delaware FC (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	0–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–2	25%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat May 22	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	0–2	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Binghamton

1.00

+0.00

-0.18

80%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Europa (—)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	West-Mont United (—)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Match Fit Surf Blue · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Copa Academy · Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Match Fit Surf Blue (—)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	1–0	59%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	2–1	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	88%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	1–1	25%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	1–1	37%
·	Sun May 2	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	1–1	51%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (6th)	3–0	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SOUTH WHITE

-16

0.00

+0.00

+0.31

6.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	West-Mont United (—)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Match Fit Surf Blue (—)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs FC Europa · Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Europa (—)	0–3	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	PSA Monmouth (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NLSA Surf (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PSA Monmouth (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Match Fit Surf White (3rd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NLSA Surf (4th)	0–2	15%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Copa Academy (2nd)	1–3	8%
·	Sat May 22	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (5th)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.