SUSA FC Northeast

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 8 teams · SUSA FC (all teams)

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1st

4-0-0 record · 4 played

3.00 points per game

+12 goal diff · 14–2

WWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 03:00 PM

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SUSA FC Northeast
1st · 3.00 PPG

Force FC
7th · 0.00 PPG

Hudson Sports Complex, Field 2 ↗ far trip

92%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.7 for, 0.5 against · 2.82 expected points)

Season so far	SUSA FC Northeast	Force FC
Position	1st	7th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-0	0-0-5
Points per game	3.00	0.00
Goals for / game	3.5	0.0
Goals against / game	0.5	3.4
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	W W W W	L L L
Biggest win	5–0 vs Scorpions SC South	—
Worst loss	—	0–5 vs AC Connecticut
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.71	-1.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+1.78

Game plan

They struggle to score
Force FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.2); blanked in 3 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Force FC concede 3.4/game; worst result 0–5 vs AC Connecticut.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 92% chance; likely score 3–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Force FC have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 03:00 PM at Hudson Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Force FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SUSA FC Northeast – Force FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.60 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.40 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

46% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 46%
2nd 54%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

Position over the season

3 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.40 · 8th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Sep 26 10:35 AM no score posted	Long Island Slammers 4th · 1-1-2 · GD +0	Away The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	1–0	2.19	2.84	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM	Force FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -17	Away far trip Hudson Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	3–0	2.82	2.83	Bank it
Sun Nov 15 02:30 PM	Eastern FC 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Away far trip Cardinal Spellman Rec Center	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	5–0	2.95	2.85	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 TBD	NJ Crush FC 2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +23	Away	●●●●○ Tough	26%	1–1	1.02	2.62	Upside
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Manhattan SC 3rd · 3-2-2 · GD +3	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	1–0	2.04	2.56	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Long Island Slammers 4th · 1-1-2 · GD +0	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	2–0	2.37	2.54	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 01:15 PM	PDA SCP 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -17	Away far trip Pope John Regional High School · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.91	2.57	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	PSA North 5th · 1-2-3 · GD -1	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	2–0	2.25	2.54	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	Force FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -17	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	4–0	2.89	2.57	Bank it
Sun May 2 TBD	Eastern FC 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	5–0	2.97	2.60	Bank it
Sat May 15 TBD	PDA SCP 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -17	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	4–0	2.95	2.62	Bank it
Sun May 16 TBD	PSA North 5th · 1-2-3 · GD -1	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	2–0	2.43	2.61	Bank it
Sat May 22 TBD	NJ Crush FC 2nd · 7-1-0 · GD +23	Home	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.25	2.53	Upside
Sun May 23 TBD	Manhattan SC 3rd · 3-2-2 · GD +3	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	1–0	2.24	2.51	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SUSA FC Northeast

+12

3.00

WWWW

+0.00

-0.40

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Select Northeast (—)	2–1

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Long Island Slammers · Sat Nov 14 at Force FC · Sun Nov 15 at Eastern FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Long Island Slammers (4th)	1–0	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Force FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Eastern FC (6th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Long Island Slammers (4th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SCP (8th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA North (5th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Force FC (7th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	5–0	99%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	4–0	98%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PSA North (5th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat May 22	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NJ Crush FC

+23

2.75

WWWWW

-1.41

-0.25

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Force FC (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA North · Sat Mar 6 vs SUSA FC Northeast See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PSA North (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Long Island Slammers (4th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Eastern FC (6th)	4–0	98%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA SCP (8th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun May 2	at	PSA North (5th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	70%
·	Sat May 15	at	Force FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	5–0	99%
·	Sat May 22	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 23	at	Long Island Slammers (4th)	1–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC

1.57

WWDWL

-0.81

-0.08

91%

3.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	PSA North (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs NJ Crush FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Vale Rush United · Sat Mar 6 vs Long Island Slammers See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	1–0	44%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–0	41%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat May 1	at	PSA North (5th)	0–0	36%
·	Sun May 2	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	73%
·	Sat May 8	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	9%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	84%
·	Sun May 16	at	Force FC (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat May 22	at	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–0	34%
·	Sun May 23	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Long Island Slammers

1.00

LLWD

+0.00

-0.16

64%

4.1

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Select Northeast (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	0–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs SUSA FC Northeast · Sat Nov 14 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 15 at Force FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eastern FC (6th)	1–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force FC (7th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0	25%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA North (5th)	0–0	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	66%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA North (5th)	0–0	36%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	72%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0	30%
·	Sun May 23	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA North

-1

0.83

DDW

+0.22

-0.19

44%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Select Northeast (—)	1–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs PDA SCP · Sun Nov 1 at NJ Crush FC · Sun Mar 7 at Eastern FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	2–0	74%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Force FC (7th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–0	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–2	12%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0	31%
·	Sun May 2	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	9%
·	Sat May 15	at	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–0	29%
·	Sun May 16	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–2	8%
·	Sun May 23	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eastern FC

-14

0.00

+0.00

+0.13

7.3

L	Sun Sep 13	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	1–5

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Force FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Long Island Slammers · Sun Nov 15 vs SUSA FC Northeast See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	PSA North (5th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Force FC (7th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PSA North (5th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–4	0%
·	Sat May 1	at	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun May 2	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sat May 15	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–2	4%
·	Sun May 16	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–5	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC

-17

0.00

LLL

+1.78

-0.13

6.5

L	Sat Oct 3	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	0–5

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 1 vs PDA SCP · Sat Nov 14 vs SUSA FC Northeast See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Eastern FC (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PSA North (5th)	0–1	16%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–1	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA North (5th)	0–1	12%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 2	at	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–1	12%
·	Sat May 15	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SCP

-17

0.00

LLLL

+1.02

-0.08

7.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Select Northeast (—)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 at PSA North · Sun Nov 1 at Force FC · Sat Mar 6 at Eastern FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	PSA North (5th)	0–2	8%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Force FC (7th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Eastern FC (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force FC (7th)	0–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–1	11%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–1	8%
·	Sat May 15	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–4	0%
·	Sun May 16	at	Long Island Slammers (4th)	0–1	8%
·	Sun May 23	vs	PSA North (5th)	0–1	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.