NJ Crush FC

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 8 teams · NJ Crush FC (all teams)

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2nd

7-1-0 record · 8 played

2.75 points per game

+23 goal diff · 24–1

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.5

-1.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 03:30 PM

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NJ Crush FC
2nd · 2.75 PPG

Manhattan SC
3rd · 1.57 PPG

College of Mt. St. Vincent, Marillac Field ↗ far trip

64% 24% 13%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.7 for, 0.6 against · 2.14 expected points)

Season so far	NJ Crush FC	Manhattan SC
Position	2nd	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	7-1-0	3-2-2
Points per game	2.75	1.57
Goals for / game	3.0	1.3
Goals against / game	0.1	0.9
Clean sheets	5	3
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L W D W W
Biggest win	7–0 vs PDA SCP	3–0 vs Scorpions SC South
Worst loss	—	1–2 vs AC Connecticut
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.78	+0.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.41	-0.78

Common opponents: Scorpions SC South — we 4–0; they 3–0. PDA SCP — we 7–0; they 2–0. AC Connecticut — we 2–0; they 1–2. Connecticut FC Legacy — we 3–1; they 3–1.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Vale Rush United.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 24% / loss 13%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 03:30 PM at College of Mt. St. Vincent.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Manhattan SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NJ Crush FC – Manhattan SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.78 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.78 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.56 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.44 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

54% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.5 average finish

1st 54%
2nd 46%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.90 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	SUSA FC Northeast	3.00 (+0.25)	2nd (2.51)	38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link NJ Crush FC to Manhattan SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

0 favour them

+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

3 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 7th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 03:30 PM	Manhattan SC 3rd · 3-2-2 · GD +3	Away far trip College of Mt. St. Vincent	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	1–0	2.14	2.68	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	PSA North 4th · 1-2-2 · GD +0	Home Ramapo College · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	2–0	2.48	2.66	Bank it
Sat Mar 6 TBD	SUSA FC Northeast 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.74	2.58	Swing game
Sun Mar 7 TBD	Long Island Slammers 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +0	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	2–0	2.43	2.57	Bank it
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Eastern FC 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	4–0	2.95	2.59	Bank it
Sat May 1 08:30 AM	PDA SCP 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -17	Away far trip Sparta HS · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	4–0	2.91	2.62	Bank it
Sun May 2 TBD	PSA North 4th · 1-2-2 · GD +0	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	71%	1–0	2.32	2.60	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Manhattan SC 3rd · 3-2-2 · GD +3	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	1–0	2.32	2.58	Bank it
Sat May 15 05:30 PM	Force FC 7th · 0-0-5 · GD -17	Away far trip Hudson Sports Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	92%	3–0	2.83	2.59	Bank it
Sun May 16 TBD	Eastern FC 6th · 0-0-4 · GD -14	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	99%	5–0	2.97	2.62	Bank it
Sat May 22 TBD	SUSA FC Northeast 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12	Away	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.49	2.56	Upside
Sun May 23 TBD	Long Island Slammers 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +0	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	68%	1–0	2.27	2.54	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

SUSA FC Northeast

+12

3.00

WWWW

+0.00

-0.40

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Select Northeast (—)	2–1

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Long Island Slammers · Sat Nov 14 at Force FC · Sun Nov 15 at Eastern FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Long Island Slammers (5th)	1–0	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Force FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Eastern FC (6th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Long Island Slammers (5th)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SCP (8th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA North (4th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Force FC (7th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	5–0	99%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	4–0	98%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PSA North (4th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat May 22	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun May 23	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NJ Crush FC

+23

2.75

WWWWW

-1.41

-0.24

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	7–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Force FC (7th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	4–0
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	0–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC · Sun Nov 1 vs PSA North · Sat Mar 6 vs SUSA FC Northeast See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PSA North (4th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	Long Island Slammers (5th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Eastern FC (6th)	4–0	98%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA SCP (8th)	4–0	96%
·	Sun May 2	at	PSA North (4th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	1–0	70%
·	Sat May 15	at	Force FC (7th)	3–0	92%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	5–0	99%
·	Sat May 22	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 23	at	Long Island Slammers (5th)	1–0	68%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Manhattan SC

1.57

WWDWL

-0.78

-0.07

88%

3.5

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	3–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	PSA North (4th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs NJ Crush FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Vale Rush United · Sat Mar 6 vs Long Island Slammers See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	1–0	44%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–0	41%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–0	71%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat May 1	at	PSA North (4th)	0–0	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	73%
·	Sat May 8	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	9%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	84%
·	Sun May 16	at	Force FC (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat May 22	at	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–0	34%
·	Sun May 23	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA North

1.00

DDW

+0.22

-0.19

61%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	3–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Select Northeast (—)	1–1
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs PDA SCP · Sun Nov 1 at NJ Crush FC · Sun Mar 7 at Eastern FC See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	2–0	76%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Force FC (7th)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–0	68%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–0	37%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0	32%
·	Sun May 2	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	10%
·	Sat May 15	at	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–0	31%
·	Sun May 16	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun May 23	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Long Island Slammers

1.00

LLWD

+0.00

-0.15

51%

4.3

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Scorpions SC South (—)	0–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Vale Rush United (—)	3–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Select Northeast (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	0–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs SUSA FC Northeast · Sat Nov 14 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 15 at Force FC See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–1	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Eastern FC (6th)	1–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Force FC (7th)	1–0	57%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0	25%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA North (4th)	0–0	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	66%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA North (4th)	0–0	35%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	72%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–0	30%
·	Sun May 23	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–1	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eastern FC

-14

0.00

+0.00

+0.13

7.3

L	Sun Sep 13	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	1–5

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Force FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Long Island Slammers · Sun Nov 15 vs SUSA FC Northeast See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	Force FC (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–1	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	PSA North (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Force FC (7th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PSA North (4th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–4	0%
·	Sat May 1	at	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun May 2	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–5	0%
·	Sat May 15	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–2	4%
·	Sun May 16	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–5	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Force FC

-17

0.00

LLL

+1.78

-0.12

6.5

L	Sat Oct 3	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Connecticut FC Legacy (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	AC Connecticut (—)	0–5

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Eastern FC · Sun Nov 1 vs PDA SCP · Sat Nov 14 vs SUSA FC Northeast See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Eastern FC (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–3	2%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–1	15%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	1–0	52%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PSA North (4th)	0–1	15%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–1	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PSA North (4th)	0–1	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SCP (8th)	1–0	41%
·	Sat May 1	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 2	at	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–1	12%
·	Sat May 15	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–3	2%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–1	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SCP

-17

0.00

LLLL

+1.02

-0.07

7.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Select Northeast (—)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Stars New Hampshire (—)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Sep 26 at PSA North · Sun Nov 1 at Force FC · Sat Mar 6 at Eastern FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	PSA North (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Force FC (7th)	0–1	24%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Eastern FC (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eastern FC (6th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Force FC (7th)	0–1	30%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–4	1%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–1	11%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NJ Crush FC (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Manhattan SC (3rd)	0–1	8%
·	Sat May 15	at	SUSA FC Northeast (1st)	0–4	0%
·	Sun May 16	at	Long Island Slammers (5th)	0–1	8%
·	Sun May 23	vs	PSA North (4th)	0–1	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.21 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.