TableChase Clubs

Monterey Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU14 · 29 teams · Monterey Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+21 goal diff · 26–5
WWWWLlast 5
37% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.6
-0.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Monterey Surf
4th · 2.50 PPG
vs
Livermore Fusion SC
23rd · 0.86 PPG

Stevenson School Upper Field, Stevenson Upper Field ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.60 expected points)

Season so farMonterey SurfLivermore Fusion SC
Position4th23rd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-12-0-5
Points per game2.500.86
Goals for / game4.31.9
Goals against / game0.82.1
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless04
Form (recent first)L W W W WW L L L W
Biggest win11–0 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club9–0 vs West Coast Soccer -RL
Worst loss3–4 at South Valley United Soccer Club0–4 vs Santa Clara Sporting
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.10-0.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.51-0.39

Common opponents: Alameda Soccer Club Islanders — we 1–0; they 0–2. Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 5–1; they 0–1.

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Livermore Fusion SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Monterey Surf – Livermore Fusion SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 13 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.57 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.29 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Loss
2.14 PPG		 7th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 4 8th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st
37% top 4
63% below the top 4
5.6 average finish
  1. 1st 3%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 11%
  4. 4th 14%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th
  25. 25th
  26. 26th
  27. 27th
  28. 28th
  29. 29th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 South Valley United Soccer Club 3.00 (+0.50) 1st (2.63) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2 Rocklin FC 2.71 (+0.21) 2nd (2.45) 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
3 Palo Alto SC 2.67 (+0.17) 3rd (2.34) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection

How the results connect

7 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Monterey Surf to Livermore Fusion SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 favour them
+3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 2–0 5–1 1–0 3–0 0–3 3–0 4–1 1–2 2–1 0–9 11–0 0–7 4–2 5–0 4–0 Monterey Surf 4th Alameda Soccer Club… 8th Los Gatos United So… 22nd Eastshore Alliance … 27th Diablo Valley Futbo… 28th Cal Magic 5th San Ramon FC 25th West Coast Soccer -… 29th North Coast FC BLUE 12th Santa Clara Sporting 6th Livermore Fusion SC 23rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 15th 29th Aug 15 Aug 23 Sep 19 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.63 · 5th hardest of 29

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Livermore Fusion SC
23rd · 2-0-5 · GD -2		 Home
Stevenson School Upper Field		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 3–1 2.60 2.51 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
03:30 PM		 AC Marin
9th · 4-2-1 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Terra Linda High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.56 2.40 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
17th · 2-1-3 · GD +9		 Home
Stevenson School Upper Field		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 4–1 2.41 2.40 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
03:30 PM		 Walnut Creek Surf
7th · 4-1-1 · GD +12		 Away far trip
Heather Farms Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.36 2.29 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Cal Magic
5th · 5-2-0 · GD +14		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.94 2.26 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 SF United FC
15th · 3-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–1 2.63 2.29 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
10:00 AM		 Rocklin FC
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +37		 Away far trip
Margaret Azevedo Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 2–3 0.83 2.18 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 PM		 Solano Surf
26th · 0-1-5 · GD -14		 Away far trip
Octo Inn Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.75 2.22 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
TBD		 Palo Alto SC
3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +22		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–2 1.22 2.15 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Association FC
24th · 1-1-5 · GD -9		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–0 2.73 2.19 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 South Valley United Soccer Club 7700 286+22 213.00 WWWWW +0.32 +0.02 96% 1.7
2 Rocklin FC 7610 447+37 192.71 WWWWW -0.43 +0.94 83% 2.8
3 Palo Alto SC 6510 264+22 162.67 WWDWW -1.37 +0.17 65% 4.0
4 Monterey Surf 6501 265+21 152.50 WWWWL -0.51 +0.63 37% 5.6
5 Cal Magic 7520 2410+14 172.43 DDWWW +0.07 +0.46 24% 6.8
6 Santa Clara Sporting 6411 319+22 132.17 WDWWW -1.16 +0.27 42% 5.4
7 Walnut Creek Surf 6411 153+12 132.17 WWLDW +0.28 -0.05 25% 6.6
8 Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 7502 187+11 152.14 LWWWL +0.47 -0.20 14% 7.7
9 AC Marin 7421 125+7 142.00 WLDWW +0.75 -0.03 3% 10.0
10 Elk Grove Soccer 6402 1310+3 122.00 WWLWL +0.83 -1.05 6% 9.2
11 Burlingame SC 7412 1511+4 131.86 LWLDW +0.43 -0.11 1% 10.9
12 North Coast FC BLUE 6312 2212+10 101.67 LLWDW -0.51 -0.75 3% 10.0
13 Napa United 8332 128+4 121.50 DLWLW -0.86 +0.46 0% 15.9
14 Stanford Strikers 7313 1314-1 101.43 WWLWL +0.38 +0.28 0% 16.2
15 SF United FC 7313 1015-5 101.43 LDWLW -0.45 +0.10 0% 18.8
16 El Camino FC Salinas 7304 917-8 91.29 WLWWL +0.85 -1.07 0% 16.2
17 San Francisco Elite Academy 6213 2415+9 71.17 LLLWW -1.56 +0.24 0% 15.6
18 East County Revolution FC 6213 816-8 71.17 WWLLD +0.63 -1.24 0% 16.5
19 Reno APEX Soccer Club 7223 2420+4 81.14 WDWLL +0.64 +0.44 0% 16.6
20 Santa Cruz United FC 7223 1720-3 81.14 LWDLD -1.18 +0.17 0% 20.0
21 Folsom Lake Surf 7214 2220+2 71.00 WDLWL -0.01 -0.11 0% 16.2
22 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 6204 717-10 61.00 WLLLL -0.68 +0.95 0% 23.8
23 Livermore Fusion SC 7205 1315-2 60.86 WLLLW -0.39 +1.00 0% 22.9
24 Association FC 7115 817-9 40.57 LDLWL -0.02 +0.41 0% 24.0
25 San Ramon FC 6024 519-14 20.33 LDDLL +0.34 -0.91 0% 22.8
26 Solano Surf 6015 923-14 10.17 LLDLL +0.31 +0.63 0% 26.3
27 Eastshore Alliance FC 7007 115-14 00.00 LLLLL +1.01 -0.39 0% 26.0
28 Diablo Valley Futbol Club 6006 148-47 00.00 LLLLL +1.01 -0.63 0% 27.9
29 West Coast Soccer -RL 7007 372-69 00.00 LLLLL +0.51 -0.67 0% 28.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.