AC Marin
ECNL Regional League Girls · NorCal GU14 · 29 teams · AC Marin (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:30 PM
Terra Linda High School, Field 1 ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.7 against · 1.20 expected points)
| Season so far | AC Marin | Monterey Surf |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 9th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-2-1 | 5-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals for / game | 1.7 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 4 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W D L W | L W W W W |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs San Ramon FC | 11–0 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at South Valley United Soccer Club | 3–4 at South Valley United Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.88 | +2.10 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.75 | -0.51 |
Common opponents: South Valley United Soccer Club — we 1–3; they 3–4.
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Monterey Surf score 4.3/game — well above the league's 2.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Hard to break down
Monterey Surf concede only 0.8/game with 4 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Walnut Creek Surf.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 32%; a draw (24%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Monterey Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Marin – Monterey Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 12 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.88 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 9th— holds | 11th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.13 PPG |
9th— holds | 9th— holds | 10th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.88 PPG |
10th▼ down 1 | 9th— holds | 11th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.75 PPG |
11th▼ down 2 | 11th▼ down 2 | 12th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 2%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 4%
- 7th 7%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 14%
- 10th 14%
- 11th 15%
- 12th 11%
- 13th 8%
- 14th 4%
- 15th 3%
- 16th 2%
- 17th 1%
- 18th <1%
- 19th <1%
- 20th <1%
- 21st
- 22nd
- 23rd
- 24th
- 25th
- 26th
- 27th
- 28th
- 29th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.63) | 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Rocklin FC | 2.71 (+0.71) | 2nd (2.45) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 3 | Palo Alto SC | 2.67 (+0.67) | 3rd (2.34) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 4 | Monterey Surf | 2.50 (+0.50) | 5th (2.19) | 26 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Cal Magic | 2.43 (+0.43) | 6th (2.12) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 6 | Santa Clara Sporting | 2.17 (+0.17) | 4th (2.20) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 7 | Walnut Creek Surf | 2.17 (+0.17) | 7th (2.11) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 8 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 2.14 (+0.14) | 8th (2.04) | 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
How the results connect
10 chains · 14 teams
Paths of results that link AC Marin to Monterey Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
10 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 17th hardest of 29
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 03:30 PM |
Monterey Surf 4th · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home Terra Linda High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.20 | 1.90 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
Reno APEX Soccer Club 19th · 2-2-3 · GD +4 |
Away far trip
Devere Mautino Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.65 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 03:30 PM |
West Coast Soccer -RL 29th · 0-0-7 · GD -69 |
Home Terra Linda High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 1.98 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 PM |
Elk Grove Soccer 10th · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Away far trip
Franklin High School Football Field · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.58 | 1.95 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Napa United 13th · 3-3-2 · GD +4 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–0 | 1.83 | 1.94 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Palo Alto SC 3rd · 5-1-0 · GD +22 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–1 | 1.18 | 1.88 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Alameda Soccer Club Islanders 8th · 5-0-2 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.22 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Burlingame SC 11th · 4-1-2 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.55 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
El Camino FC Salinas 16th · 3-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 1.84 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | South Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | +0.32 | +0.02 | 97% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 at East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Cruz United FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rocklin FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 44 | 7 | +37 | 19 | 2.71 | WWWWW | -0.43 | +0.94 | 84% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 at Palo Alto SC · Sun Mar 14 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Palo Alto SC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 4 | +22 | 16 | 2.67 | WWDWW | -1.37 | +0.17 | 68% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Rocklin FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Monterey Surf | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 5 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.51 | +0.63 | 36% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 1 at AC Marin · Sun Nov 8 vs San Francisco Elite Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Cal Magic | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 17 | 2.43 | DDWWW | +0.07 | +0.46 | 24% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Mar 14 at Monterey Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Santa Clara Sporting | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 9 | +22 | 13 | 2.17 | WDWWW | -1.16 | +0.27 | 41% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 1 vs Burlingame SC · Sat Nov 7 vs San Ramon FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Walnut Creek Surf | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 3 | +12 | 13 | 2.17 | WWLDW | +0.28 | -0.05 | 25% | 6.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Association FC · Sun Nov 1 at San Ramon FC · Sat Nov 14 vs Monterey Surf See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Alameda Soccer Club Islanders | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 15 | 2.14 | LWWWL | +0.47 | -0.20 | 13% | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Burlingame SC · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 vs SF United FC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | AC Marin | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 14 | 2.00 | WLDWW | +0.75 | -0.03 | 3% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Monterey Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 14 vs West Coast Soccer -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Elk Grove Soccer | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | WWLWL | +0.83 | -1.05 | 5% | 9.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Cal Magic See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Burlingame SC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 | 1.86 | LWLDW | +0.43 | -0.11 | 1% | 10.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | North Coast FC BLUE | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 10 | 1.67 | LLWDW | -0.51 | -0.75 | 3% | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West Coast Soccer -RL · Sun Nov 8 at Eastshore Alliance FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Napa United | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 12 | 1.50 | DLWLW | -0.86 | +0.46 | 0% | 15.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sat Nov 7 vs Solano Surf · Sun Mar 14 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Stanford Strikers | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | WWLWL | +0.38 | +0.28 | 0% | 16.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 vs Santa Cruz United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs San Ramon FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | SF United FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 | 1.43 | LDWLW | -0.45 | +0.10 | 0% | 18.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 1 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Alameda Soccer Club Islanders See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 9 | 1.29 | WLWWL | +0.85 | -1.07 | 0% | 16.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Palo Alto SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Alameda Soccer Club Islanders · Sun Nov 8 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 7 | 1.17 | LLLWW | -1.56 | +0.24 | 0% | 15.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Cal Magic · Sun Oct 25 vs Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Association FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | East County Revolution FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 7 | 1.17 | WWLLD | +0.63 | -1.24 | 0% | 16.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 vs South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at West Coast Soccer -RL See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Reno APEX Soccer Club | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 8 | 1.14 | WDWLL | +0.64 | +0.44 | 0% | 16.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Livermore Fusion SC · Sun Nov 8 vs AC Marin See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Santa Cruz United FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 8 | 1.14 | LWDLD | -1.18 | +0.17 | 0% | 20.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Rocklin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Stanford Strikers · Sun Nov 8 at South Valley United Soccer Club See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | Folsom Lake Surf | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 7 | 1.00 | WDLWL | -0.01 | -0.11 | 0% | 16.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at South Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Elk Grove Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs Livermore Fusion SC See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLLL | -0.68 | +0.95 | 0% | 23.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Solano Surf · Sun Nov 1 at SF United FC · Sun Nov 8 vs Burlingame SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Livermore Fusion SC | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 6 | 0.86 | WLLLW | -0.39 | +1.00 | 0% | 22.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Monterey Surf · Sun Nov 1 at Reno APEX Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Association FC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | 0.57 | LDLWL | -0.02 | +0.41 | 0% | 23.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 25 | San Ramon FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 | 0.33 | LDDLL | +0.34 | -0.91 | 0% | 22.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Walnut Creek Surf · Sat Nov 7 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 26 | Solano Surf | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 1 | 0.17 | LLDLL | +0.31 | +0.63 | 0% | 26.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at Palo Alto SC · Sat Nov 7 at Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 27 | Eastshore Alliance FC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.39 | 0% | 25.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Ramon FC · Sun Nov 1 at Diablo Valley Futbol Club · Sun Nov 8 vs North Coast FC BLUE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 28 | Diablo Valley Futbol Club | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 48 | -47 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.01 | -0.63 | 0% | 27.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs East County Revolution FC · Sun Nov 1 vs Eastshore Alliance FC · Sun Nov 8 vs El Camino FC Salinas See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 29 | West Coast Soccer -RL | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 72 | -69 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.51 | -0.67 | 0% | 28.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at North Coast FC BLUE · Sun Nov 8 vs East County Revolution FC · Sat Nov 14 at AC Marin See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.37 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.