Mississippi Rush United
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU16 · 9 teams · Mississippi Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Feb 20, TBD
Venue TBD
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 5–3 (expected goals 5.7 for, 3.3 against · 2.28 expected points)
| Season so far | Mississippi Rush United | FC Alliance TN |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 9.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W | — |
| Biggest win | 11–0 at Mississippi Surf | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.99 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -2.99 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
FC Alliance TN average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 4.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 5–3.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Alliance TN game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mississippi Rush United – FC Alliance TN) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Feb 15 – Sun Feb 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 4 |
| Loss 2.00 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 3rd▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–3 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 96%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
Position over the season
2 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.76 | Bank it |
| Sun Feb 21 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.64 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 03:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Drakes Creek Park (DCP) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.57 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 10:00 AM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Richard Siegel Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.52 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM |
FC Alliance TN 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
6–2 | 2.56 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
6–2 | 2.56 | 2.53 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 09:00 AM |
Germantown Legends 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Snowden Groove Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.48 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 03:00 PM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
6–2 | 2.56 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 11:00 AM |
Tennessee United SC 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
6–2 | 2.56 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 03:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
6–2 | 2.56 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 11:00 AM |
Lobos Rush 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Freedom Ridge Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
6–2 | 2.56 | 2.50 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sun May 9 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
5–3 | 2.28 | 2.48 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi Rush United | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | +17 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -2.99 | +0.00 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Mar 20 at Tennessee United SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sat Dec 5 at Germantown Legends · Sun Dec 6 at Lobos Rush See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Alliance TN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Lobos Rush · Sun Dec 6 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Germantown Legends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Dec 5 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Dec 6 vs FC Alliance TN See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 6 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 7 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lobos Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs FC Alliance TN · Sun Dec 6 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 14 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Dec 5 vs Mississippi Surf · Sat Dec 12 at FC Alliance TN See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Tennessee United SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush · Sat Jan 30 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Mississippi Surf | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +2.99 | +0.00 | 0% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 5 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.