Lobos Rush
ECNL Regional League Girls · Mid-America GU13 · 9 teams · Lobos Rush (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, 12:00 PM
W.C. Johnson Turf Park, Field 2 ↗ · turf
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.3 for, 2.6 against · 1.25 expected points)
| Season so far | Lobos Rush | Tennessee United SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-2-1 | 1-0-0 |
| Points per game | 1.60 | 3.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.4 | 3.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L D D W W | W |
| Biggest win | 7–1 vs FC Alliance TN | 3–1 vs Mississippi Surf |
| Worst loss | 0–9 at Mississippi Rush United | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.22 | +0.36 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.32 | -1.23 |
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–9 at Mississippi Rush United.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Germantown Legends sit 4th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.60.A point moves us above Germantown Legends on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Tennessee United SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lobos Rush – Tennessee United SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.83 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 | 3rd▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 18%
- 5th 28%
- 6th 33%
- 7th 5%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississippi Rush United | 3.00 (+1.40) | 1st (2.68) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Tennessee United SC | 3.00 (+1.40) | 4th (1.65) | 40 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 3 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 2.00 (+0.40) | 3rd (1.75) | 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | Germantown Legends | 1.60 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.77) | A point next game |
How the results connect
4 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Lobos Rush to Tennessee United SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 7th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 12:00 PM |
Tennessee United SC 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.25 | 1.54 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
Chattanooga Red Wolves 8th · 0-1-3 · GD -9 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.98 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
FC Alliance TN 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -15 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.22 | 1.68 | Swing game |
| Thu Mar 4 06:00 PM |
Germantown Legends 4th · 2-2-1 · GD +11 |
Home Progress Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 22% |
1–2 | 0.83 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 11:00 AM |
Mississippi Surf 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
BankPlus Sportsplex at Ballard Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 04:00 PM |
Tennessee SC Murfreesboro 3rd · 3-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.03 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 09:00 AM |
Indy Eleven Spirit 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–2 | 1.46 | 1.56 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 11:00 AM |
Tennessee United SC 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +2 |
Away far trip
Moss Wright Park (MWP) |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.94 | 1.51 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Indy Eleven Spirit 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.13 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 04:00 PM |
Mississippi Surf 7th · 1-0-4 · GD -13 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–1 | 2.18 | 1.53 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
Mississippi Rush United 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +19 |
Home W.C. Johnson Turf Park · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
1–4 | 0.23 | 1.45 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Mississippi Rush United | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | +19 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.90 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Germantown Legends · Sat Feb 20 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Feb 21 at Chattanooga Red Wolves See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Tennessee United SC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -1.23 | +0.08 | 64% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro · Sun Nov 22 at Germantown Legends · Sat Dec 12 at Lobos Rush See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Tennessee SC Murfreesboro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 | 2.00 | LWWWD | -0.72 | +0.27 | 81% | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 vs Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Feb 20 at Indy Eleven Spirit See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Germantown Legends | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 8 | 1.60 | WWDDL | -0.82 | +0.24 | 85% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Mississippi Rush United · Sat Nov 7 at Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Nov 22 vs Tennessee United SC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lobos Rush | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 | 1.60 | WWDDL | +0.32 | -0.03 | 33% | 4.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 27 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 28 at FC Alliance TN See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Alliance TN | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 19 | -15 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | +0.09 | +0.38 | 0% | 8.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 17 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sun Jan 31 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 20 vs Mississippi Rush United See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Mississippi Surf | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +1.68 | -0.46 | 1% | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Feb 20 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sun Feb 21 at FC Alliance TN · Sat Mar 6 vs Lobos Rush See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 1 | 0.25 | LLLD | -0.13 | +0.31 | 0% | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 18 vs Indy Eleven Spirit · Sat Jan 30 vs Tennessee United SC · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC Murfreesboro See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Indy Eleven Spirit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.04 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Oct 17 at FC Alliance TN · Sun Oct 18 at Chattanooga Red Wolves · Sat Nov 7 vs Germantown Legends See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.17 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.