Liverpool FC MI
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU19 · 5 teams · Liverpool FC-IA Michigan (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.0 against · 0.89 expected points)
| Season so far | Liverpool FC MI | Chicago Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 1st |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-3-4 | 6-1-1 |
| Points per game | 0.75 | 2.38 |
| Goals for / game | 1.1 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W D D | W W D W |
| Biggest win | 3–0 vs FC Wisconsin | 3–0 vs Nationals SC |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs FC 1974 Libertyville | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.31 | +0.83 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.12 | -0.20 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 2–2 at Chicago Inter (D)
Common opponents: Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 1–1; they 4–2. Nationals SC — we 2–2; they 3–1, 3–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 vs FC 1974 Libertyville, 0–1 vs Evolution, 0–1 vs Michigan Hawks.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Eclipse Select Soccer Club sit 3rd on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.75.A win moves us above Eclipse Select Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Chicago Inter game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Liverpool FC MI – Chicago Inter) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 0.78 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 0.78 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 5%
- 3rd 27%
- 4th 55%
- 5th 13%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago Inter | 2.38 (+1.63) | 1st (2.28) | 23 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Nationals SC | 1.44 (+0.69) | 2nd (1.45) | 12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 1.00 (+0.25) | 3rd (1.13) | Win next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Liverpool FC MI to Chicago Inter through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 2nd hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
Chicago Inter 1st · 6-1-1 · GD +10 |
Home UWM Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.89 | 0.77 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 12:15 PM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 3rd · 2-1-4 · GD -5 |
Home UWM Sports Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 0.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM |
Nationals SC 2nd · 4-1-4 · GD -2 |
Home Detroit Country Day Hillview Field |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 0.89 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 TBD |
Michigan Hawks 5th · 1-0-6 · GD -11 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
1–1 | 1.70 | 0.96 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Chicago Inter | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 10 | +10 | 19 | 2.38 | WDWW | -0.20 | -0.55 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Oct 25 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Nov 8 vs Michigan Hawks See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 13 | 1.44 | LDLLW | -0.05 | -0.37 | 100% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Nov 8 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 7 | 1.00 | LLD | +0.13 | -0.20 | 92% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Michigan Hawks · Sun Oct 25 at Liverpool FC MI · Sat Nov 7 vs Michigan Hawks See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Liverpool FC MI | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 | 0.75 | DDWLL | -0.12 | -0.10 | 87% | 3.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Chicago Inter · Sun Oct 25 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Hawks | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 3 | 0.43 | LLWLL | -0.15 | +0.10 | 21% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Nov 7 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.94 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.