Evolution
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU15 · 4 teams · Evolution SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
FC Wisconsin Soccer Park, Field 1 - Val Olla Field ↗ far trip
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.2 against · 1.15 expected points)
| Season so far | Evolution | FC Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 3rd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-6 | 0-1-5 |
| Points per game | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Goals for / game | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Goals against / game | 5.6 | 4.5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | L L L L | L L L L |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | 0–8 vs FC 1974 Libertyville | 0–7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.69 | -2.31 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.54 | +1.64 |
Common opponents: FC 1974 Libertyville — we 0–8; they 0–6. Eclipse Select Soccer Club — we 0–8; they 0–7. Rockford Raptors FC — we 0–4; they 0–5. Chicago Inter — we 1–3; they 0–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
FC Wisconsin average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 4 of 6.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
FC Wisconsin concede 4.5/game; worst result 0–7 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–8 vs FC 1974 Libertyville, 0–8 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club, 0–4 at Rockford Raptors FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 31%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Confidence is low on their side
FC Wisconsin have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at FC Wisconsin Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
FC Wisconsin sit 3rd on 0.17 PPG; we are on 0.14.A point moves us above FC Wisconsin on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Wisconsin game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Evolution – FC Wisconsin) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 0.50 PPG |
3rd▲ up 1 | 3rd▲ up 1 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 0.13 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 33%
- 4th 67%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.18 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 2.57 (+2.43) | 1st (2.56) | 28 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Rockford Raptors FC | 1.43 (+1.29) | 2nd (1.53) | 15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | FC Wisconsin | 0.17 (+0.03) | 3rd (0.43) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
2 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Evolution to FC Wisconsin through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.36 · 2nd hardest of 4
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
FC Wisconsin 3rd · 0-1-5 · GD -26 |
Away far trip
FC Wisconsin Soccer Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
1–2 | 1.15 | 0.27 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 04:00 PM |
Rockford Raptors FC 2nd · 3-1-3 · GD +4 |
Home Stuart Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–3 | 0.25 | 0.27 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM |
FC 1974 Libertyville 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +27 |
Away far trip
LTSC |
●●●●● Very tough | 0% |
0–6 | 0.03 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 03:00 PM |
FC Wisconsin 3rd · 0-1-5 · GD -26 |
Home Marmion Academy |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
2–1 | 1.44 | 0.35 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC 1974 Libertyville | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 6 | +27 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWW | -2.48 | -0.87 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Rockford Raptors FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Rockford Raptors FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 10 | 1.43 | WWLDL | -2.51 | -0.03 | 100% | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Oct 25 at Evolution · Sat Oct 31 vs FC 1974 Libertyville See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Wisconsin | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 27 | -26 | 1 | 0.17 | LLLL | +1.64 | -0.44 | 100% | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Evolution · Sun Oct 25 at FC 1974 Libertyville · Sat Nov 7 vs Nationals SC See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Evolution | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 39 | -37 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLL | +1.54 | -0.36 | 100% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sat Nov 7 at FC 1974 Libertyville See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.62 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.