Michigan Hawks
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU14 · 5 teams · Michigan Hawks (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 21, 10:00 AM
St. Joe's Sports Dome, St. Joe's Dome ↗
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.00 expected points)
| Season so far | Michigan Hawks | Nationals SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 6-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 2.57 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 3 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W D | W W W W W |
| Biggest win | 6–1 vs FC Wisconsin | 5–0 vs Rockford Raptors FC |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at Nationals SC | 1–3 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.13 | +1.05 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.95 | -0.17 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 1–3 at Nationals SC (L)
Common opponents: Rockford Raptors FC — we 1–1, 2–0; they 5–0. FC Wisconsin — we 6–1, 6–1; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Nationals SC score 3.1/game — well above the league's 1.8.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
Nationals SC concede only 0.9/game with 3 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Liverpool FC MI.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 26%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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They arrive in form
Nationals SC have won 5 straight.Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Nationals SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Michigan Hawks – Nationals SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.43 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 64%
- 4th 24%
- 5th 4%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.43 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool FC MI | 2.60 (+0.93) | 2nd (2.18) | 27 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 2 | Nationals SC | 2.57 (+0.90) | 1st (2.26) | 26 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link Michigan Hawks to Nationals SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.09 · 5th hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 21 10:00 AM |
Nationals SC 2nd · 6-0-1 · GD +16 |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 1.00 | 1.57 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Chicago Inter 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–1 | 1.84 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Chicago Inter 5th · 2-2-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
1–1 | 1.84 | 1.63 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.62 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM |
Eclipse Select Soccer Club 4th · 2-0-3 · GD -1 |
Home Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
1–1 | 1.49 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 10:00 AM |
Evolution |
Home Schoolcraft Turf · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 10:00 AM |
FC 1974 Libertyville |
Home St. Joe's Sports Dome |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.61 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Liverpool FC MI 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.81 | 1.55 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Liverpool FC MI | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.14 | +0.23 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC · Sat Apr 3 at Nationals SC · Sat Apr 17 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 6 | +16 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWWW | -0.17 | +0.26 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Mar 21 at Michigan Hawks · Sat Apr 3 vs Liverpool FC MI See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Michigan Hawks | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 10 | 1.67 | DWLWW | +0.95 | +0.09 | 96% | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Nationals SC · Sat Apr 3 at Chicago Inter · Sun Apr 4 at Chicago Inter See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | WWL | +0.42 | +0.15 | 80% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Apr 10 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Apr 11 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 8 | 1.14 | LDL | +0.73 | +0.27 | 23% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 21 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Apr 3 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Apr 4 vs Michigan Hawks See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.