Eclipse Select Soccer Club
ECNL Regional League Girls · Lake Michigan GU14 · 5 teams · Eclipse Select Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sun Mar 21, TBD
Venue TBD
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.1 against · 2.15 expected points)
| Season so far | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | Chicago Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 2-2-3 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Goals for / game | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W | L D L |
| Biggest win | 4–1 at Chicago Inter | — |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Liverpool FC MI | 0–4 vs Nationals SC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.21 | -0.81 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.42 | +0.74 |
Already played this season: Sun Aug 30 4–1 at Chicago Inter (W)
Common opponents: Nationals SC — we 3–1; they 0–4. Liverpool FC MI — we 1–2; they 2–2.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Chicago Inter average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 1 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 66% / draw 18% / loss 16%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Chicago Inter game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Eclipse Select Soccer Club – Chicago Inter) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 2%
- 3rd 52%
- 4th 33%
- 5th 12%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.36 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool FC MI | 2.60 (+1.40) | 2nd (2.20) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
| 2 | Nationals SC | 2.50 (+1.30) | 1st (2.21) | 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Eclipse Select Soccer Club to Chicago Inter through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
4 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.08 · 4th hardest of 5
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Chicago Inter 4th · 2-2-3 · GD -7 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
2–1 | 2.15 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
FC 1974 Libertyville |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Evolution |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Liverpool FC MI 1st · 4-1-0 · GD +11 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.84 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Nationals SC 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +15 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 1.31 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 10:00 AM |
Michigan Hawks 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 10:00 AM |
Michigan Hawks 5th · 1-1-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Jaycee Park · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.51 | 1.34 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
FC Wisconsin |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 1.37 | Swing game |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Rockford Raptors FC |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.67 | 1.39 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Liverpool FC MI | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 13 | 2.60 | DWWWW | -0.26 | +0.19 | 100% | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Nationals SC · Sat Apr 3 at Nationals SC · Sat Apr 17 vs Eclipse Select Soccer Club See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Nationals SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | -0.27 | +0.16 | 100% | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Wisconsin · Sat Oct 31 at Liverpool FC MI · Sun Mar 21 at Michigan Hawks See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eclipse Select Soccer Club | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 6 | 1.20 | WWL | +0.42 | +0.08 | 88% | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 21 vs Chicago Inter · Sat Apr 10 vs FC 1974 Libertyville · Sun Apr 11 vs Evolution See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Chicago Inter | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 8 | 1.14 | LDL | +0.74 | +0.19 | 43% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Mar 21 at Eclipse Select Soccer Club · Sat Apr 3 vs Michigan Hawks · Sun Apr 4 vs Michigan Hawks See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Michigan Hawks | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 | 1.00 | LDWL | +0.96 | +0.07 | 69% | 4.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Wisconsin · Sun Oct 25 vs Rockford Raptors FC · Sun Mar 21 vs Nationals SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.